首页|农技推广对粮农耕地持续保护行为的影响——基于期望确认的中介效应

农技推广对粮农耕地持续保护行为的影响——基于期望确认的中介效应

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[目的]探究农技推广与粮农耕地持续保护行为之间的逻辑关系,对农业可持续发展具有一定意义。[方法]本文基于河南省634份粮农的调查数据,利用变异系数法测算粮农耕地持续保护程度,实证分析农技推广对粮农耕地持续保护行为的影响以及期望确认在其中发挥的中介效应。[结果]①基层农技推广、数字农技推广均显著促进粮农耕地持续保护行为,且在解决内生性问题与进行稳健性检验后结论仍成立;②基于代际差异分析,基层农技推广对粮农耕地持续保护行为的影响无群组差异,而数字农技推广对新生代粮农耕地持续保护行为的影响更显著;③基层农技推广、数字农技推广在对粮农耕地持续保护行为的影响中呈现出互补效应;④基层农技推广通过增强利益期望确认、降低风险期望确认两条路径来间接影响粮农耕地持续保护行为,而数字农技推广主要通过增强利益期望确认来间接影响粮农耕地持续保护行为。[结论]在加强基层农技推广与数字农技推广建设的同时,也应发挥"线上"与"线下"农技推广的互补效应,以帮助粮农形成较为客观的期望水平,进而促使粮农持续实施耕地保护行为。
Impact of agricultural technology promotion on the sustainable protection of cultivated land by grain growers:Mediation effect based on expectation confirmation
[Objective]Exploring the relationship between agricultural technology promotion and sustainable protection of cultivated land is of certain significance for sustainable agricultural development.[Methods]This study was based on the survey data of 634 grain growers in Henan Province.The coefficient of variation method was used to calculate the degree of sustainable protection of cultivated land by grain growers,and an empirical analysis was conducted to examine the impact of agricultural technology promotion on the sustainable protection behavior of grain growers for cultivated land,as well as the mediation effect of expectation confirmation.[Results]The results show that:(1)Grassroots on site and online agricultural technology promotions both significantly promote the sustainable protection of cultivated land,and the result is still valid after addressing endogeneity issues and conducting robustness tests;(2)Based on the intergenerational difference analysis,there is no group difference in the impact of grassroots on site agricultural technology promotion on the sustainable protection behavior of grain growers for cultivated land,while online agricultural technology promotion has a more significant impact on the sustainable protection behavior of young generation grain growers;(3)Grassroots agricultural technology promotion and online agricultural technology promotion exhibit complementary effects in their impact on the sustainable protection of cultivated land by grain growers;(4)Grassroots agricultural technology promotion indirectly affects the sustainable protection behavior of grain growers by the expectation confirmation of enhancing interest and reducing risks,while online agricultural technology promotion mainly indirectly affects the sustainable protection behavior of grain growers by the expectation confirmation of enhancing interest.[Conclusion]While strengthening the development of grassroots agricultural technology promotion and online agricultural technology promotion,the complementary effect of online and on site agricultural technology promotion should also be enhanced to help grain growers form a more objective level of expectation,and thus promote the sustainable implementation of cultivated land protection by farmers.

grassroots agricultural technology promotiononline agricultural technology promotionexpectation confirmationsustainable protection of cultivated landgrain growersHenan Province

李洁艳、张红丽

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石河子大学经济与管理学院,石河子 832000

石河子大学农业现代化研究中心,石河子 832000

基层农技推广 数字农技推广 期望确认 耕地持续保护行为 粮农 河南省

国家自然科学基金项目

72063028

2024

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.408
ISSN:1007-7588
年,卷(期):2024.46(1)
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