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黄河流域人口收缩县城类型及其时空演化特征

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[目的]黄河流域高质量发展已上升为国家战略,但面临着人口减少和流失的双重压力,导致收缩县城比较普遍。化解县城收缩引起的人口流失、经济衰败和社会发展迟缓等问题成为推进城乡融合发展、实现乡村振兴面临的重要课题。科学识别收缩县城的类型,辨析收缩过程的周期性和稳定性,对促进黄河流域高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。[方法]本文以人口收缩率为标志,构建了收缩县城识别标准,系统分析了黄河流域2000-2020年县城人口收缩的过程与类型。[结果]研究发现:①黄河流域人口收缩县城以暂时性收缩和周期性收缩为主,暂时性收缩县城159个,占52。65%;周期性收缩县城139个,占46。03%;持续性收缩县城仅4个。②空间分布主要指向集中连片贫困区、矿产资源开发区、民族聚居区和省际接壤区。③县城人口收缩-停滞(或扩张)交替出现,收缩累计年份以2~4年为主,其次是5~8年,大致暗合中国特有的"五年计划"(基钦周期)。[结论]黄河流域县城主要以暂时性和周期性收缩为主,并没有形成令人担忧的结果,但对于集中分布区应高度重视,并分类制定应对策略。
Types and spatiotemporal change characteristics of population shrinking county seats in the Yellow River Basin
[Objective]"Shrinking county seats"is a new topic in national and regional governance.As the center of the county,a county seat is not only the center of population distribution,but also the center of comprehensive governance in the county.The shrinkage of the county seat's population has more exemplary and symbolic significance.Resolving the population shrinkage,economic decline,and slow social development problems of county seats has become an important issue in promoting urban-rural integration and achieving rural revitalization.The high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin has become a national strategy,but it is facing dual pressures of population reduction and loss.It is of great practical significance to scientifically identify the types of shrinking county seats,analyze the periodicity and stability of the shrinking process,and promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.[Method]This study used population shrinkage rate to systematically analyze the process and types of population shrinkage in county seats in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020.[Results]The study found that:(1)Population shrinkage in the county seats is mainly characterized by temporary and periodic contractions.(2)Shrinking county seats are concentrated in contiguous poverty-stricken areas,mineral resource development zones,ethnic minority settlements,and inter-provincial border areas.(3)The population in the county seats alternated between contraction and stagnation(or expansion),with the cumulative years of contraction mainly within 2 to 4 years,followed by 5 to 8 years,roughly in line with China's unique Five Year Plan periods(Kitchin Cycle)and Juglar Cycle.[Conclusion]The 381 county seats in the Yellow River Basin mainly experienced temporary and periodic contraction,which has not resulted in worrying results.But attention should be paid to the concentrated distribution areas and targeted response strategies should be formulated.

shrinking county seatspopulation shrinkage indextype of shrinkageprocess of shrinkagecycle of shrinkagespatial distributionYellow River Basin

王录仓、杨婷婷

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西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州 730070

甘肃省绿洲资源环境与可持续发展重点实验室,兰州 730070

收缩县城 人口收缩指数 收缩类型 收缩过程 收缩周期 空间分布 黄河流域

国家自然科学基金面上项目绿洲科学科研成果突破行动计划

42371219NWNU-LZKX-202302

2024

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.408
ISSN:1007-7588
年,卷(期):2024.46(2)
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