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人口-土地协调视角下的湖南省主体功能区优化探索

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[目的]主体功能区对促进人口、经济、社会、资源、环境协调发展具有战略引领作用,为了应对人口和用地的紧缩发展新趋势,有必要对主体功能区实施进行回顾评价,并针对问题提出优化建议。[方法]本文运用人口普查和土地调查数据,探究湖南省区县人口-土地的增长/收缩时空演变规律,定量分析2010-2020年区县人口-土地的协调关系,结合《湖南省主体功能区规划》(2012年)总结主体功能区框架下的人地变化特征,并对比规划实现情况,探讨未来主体功能区的优化发展方向。[结果]研究发现:①2010-2020年,湖南省各区县城镇常住人口增长/收缩差异化发展特征明显,全省城镇建设用地总体呈增长趋势,但增长速率呈下降趋势;②2010-2020年区县人口和土地不平衡现象普遍,大量的区县存在人多地少(集约型发展)与人少地多(宽松型发展)两种不匹配趋势,既存在城镇常住人口增长滞后于城镇建设用地增长的区县,也存在城镇常住人口增长略快于城镇建设用地增长的区县。③《湖南省主体功能区规划》自2012年实施以来,虽然体现出引导人口和土地协调发展的作用,但各区县城镇人口和土地发展仍然存在与所属主体功能区发展目标相违背的情况。[结论]基于以上分析,本文对主体功能区进行优化方案探索。一方面,人口-土地协调视角下,各类主体功能区(城市化地区、农产品主产区和重点生态功能区)都可能存在多种发展情景,有必要进一步细化类型划分,提出湖南省各区县多类型发展方向;另一方面,主体功能区类型与城镇建设用地、城镇常住人口之间存在双向作用机制,未来的主体功能区规划需要结合数据分析得出人口和土地增长关系,从人地协调发展视角对主体功能区提出优化路径。
Optimizing major function-oriented zone of Hunan Province from the perspective of population-land coordination
[Objective]The major function-oriented zones(MFOZs)play a strategic role in promoting the coordinated development of population,economy,society,resources,and environment.In response to the emerging trend of population shrinkage and more compact development of cities,it is necessary to review and evaluate the implementation of MFOZ and propose optimization suggestions.[Methods]This study used census and land survey data to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of population-land growth/shrinkage in counties of Hunan Province.It quantitatively analyzed the coordination between population and land from 2010 to 2020.Comparing the results with objectives set in the Hunan Province MFOZ Plan(2012),it summarized the characteristics of population-land changes under the MFOZ framework,which led to discussions on the future optimization direction of MFOZ.[Results]The study found that:(1)From 2010 to 2020,there were obvious differentiated development pathways of urban population growth/shrinkage in various counties of Hunan Province.Overall,urban land showed a growing trend,but the growth rate declined.(2)There was a widespread of population-land imbalance in the counties from 2010 to 2020.Many counties exhibited two mismatch trends:more population and less land(compact development),and less population and more land(expansive development).Both the counties with urban population growth lagging behind urban construction land growth and those with urban population growth slightly faster than urban construction land growth were observed.(3)Since its implementation in Hunan Province in 2012,although the MFOZ Plan has played the role of guiding coordinated development of population and land,there are still situations where the results are inconsistent with the development goals of the MFOZ.[Conclusion]Based on the analysis,this study explored optimization solutions for the MFOZ.On the one hand,from the perspective of population-land coordination,various types of MFOZ(urbanization areas,major agricultural production areas,and key ecological function areas)may have multiple development scenarios,and it is necessary to further refine their classification and propose multi-type development directions for Hunan Province.On the other hand,there is a bidirectional mechanism of influence between MFOZ types and urban land,as well as urban population.Future MFOZ planning needs to combine the population-land growth relationship derived from data analysis and propose optimization paths from the perspective of coordinated development between the two.

major function-oriented zonecoordination of population and landpopulation urbanizationland urbanizationshrinking cityHunan Province

周恺、张旭阳、夏依宁、张瑞霞、曾鹏

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湖南大学建筑与规划学院,长沙 410000

湖南省国土资源规划院,长沙 410000

主体功能区 人地协调 人口城镇化 土地城镇化 收缩城市 湖南省

国家自然科学基金国土资源评价与利用湖南省重点实验室开放基金

52078197SYS-ZX-202301

2024

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.408
ISSN:1007-7588
年,卷(期):2024.46(2)
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