The impact of RCEP on agricultural trade among members:From the perspectives of tariff concession and trade facilitation
[Objective]The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)is another major opening-up achievement after China joined WTO.This paper analyzes the impact of RCEP's entry into force on the agricultural trade of member countries(regions)(hereinafter referred to as members)from the dual perspectives of tariff concessions and trade facilitation based on theory and evidence.[Methods]Firstly,the mechanism of tariff concession and trade facilitation affecting agricultural trade and welfare of RCEP members was analyzed through the trade theory model and illustrations of heterogeneous firms.Then,the scale of tariff concession is measured based on the tariff schedule,and the degree of trade facilitation is quantified by combining customs clearance time and trade time tariff equivalent data.Finally,in GTAP model introducing trade time cost,the impact of RCEP tariff concession and trade facilitation on the agricultural trade among members is simulated by using GTAP 10th edition data,and the differences between the two effects are compared.[Results](1)10 years after RCEP comes into effect,it will significantly promote the economic growth of all members.Compared with the baseline scenario,the GDP of ASEAN,South Korea,New Zealand,Japan,Australia and China will increase by 1.849％,0.873％,0.469％,0.467％,0.400％and 0.396％,respectively.In China,for example,trade facilitation contributed twice as much to GDP growth(0.265％)as tariff reduction(0.121％).(2)After the implementation of RCEP,it significantly promotes agricultural trade of advantageous products of members,such as the export growth of China's fruits and vegetables,aquatic products,pig and poultry meat was 13.83％,8.31％,7.32％,and import growth of fruits and vegetables,beef and mutton,edible fats was 16.16％,10.37％,8.89％.(3)Trade facilitation promotes the agricultural trade,especially perishable agricultural products(fruits and vegetables,meat products,edible fats)of RCEP members.(4)The imports of agricultural products from RCEP members outside the region will be transferred to the region,and the exports of agricultural products without comparative advantages to the region will decline.[Conclusion]Before the implementation of RCEP,bilateral tariffs among other members except between China and Japan,and Japan and South Korea have been relatively low,and the room for tariff concessions is limited.Trade facilitation promotes agricultural trade more effectively.This paper helps grasp the opportunities and risks RCEP brings to members'agriculture and estimate the alternative role of trade facilitation in context of limited tariff reduction space.
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)agricultural tradetrade fa-cilitationtariff concessionGTAP model
万方数据
