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长江经济带能源转型与城乡收入差距的时空演化及关联性

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[目的]能源转型是实现中国碳达峰碳中和目标的关键路径,探究能源转型对城乡收入差距的影响旨在为实现公正转型提供科学依据。[方法]本文基于长江经济带108个地级及以上城市2010-2020年面板数据,采用空间分析和固定效应模型,分析能源转型与城乡收入差距时空演变特征,并揭示二者间的关联关系以及该关系呈现出的区域异质性。[结果]①长江经济带各地区城市的能源转型绩效水平总体呈上升趋势,其中省会城市的能源转型指数值长期维持在较高水平。同时,城乡收入差距逐年缩小,且呈现出西高东低的格局;②长江经济带城市能源转型与城乡收入差距呈"U"型关系,即随着能源转型绩效水平的提高,城乡收入差距呈现出先减小后增大的特征;③长江上中下游地区城市的能源转型与城乡收入差距之间的关系存在显著差异,上游呈倒"U"型关系,中游呈"U"型关系,下游无显著相关关系。这表明,上游地区各城市的能源转型路径逐渐朝着公正的方向前进,中游地区则相反,而下游地区的城乡居民对能源转型所引起的社会经济效应敏感度较低。[结论]因此,应根据上中下游地区发展实际,制定差异化的能源转型政策,有效防止转型带来的负向影响,积极推动公正能源转型和城乡均衡发展。
The spatiotemporal change and correlation of energy transition and urban-rural income gaps in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
[Objective]Energy transition is a key path to achieving China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,and exploring the impact of energy transition on the urban-rural income gaps can provide a scientific basis for realizing equity in the transition.[Methods]Based on the panel data of 108 cities at the prefecture level and above in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2020,this study employed spatial analysis and fixed-effects model to analyze the characteristics of the temporal and spatial change of energy transition and urban-rural income gaps,and to reveal the correlation between the two and their regional heterogeneity of this relationship.[Results](1)The performance level of energy transition of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows an overall upward trend,and the energy transition index values of provincial capital cities has remained at a high level for a long time.At the same time,urban-rural income gaps have been narrowing year by year,showing a pattern of high in the west and low in the east.(2)The relationship between energy transition and urban-rural income gaps in cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was U-shaped.With the improvement of the performance level of energy transition,urban-rural income gaps showed the characteristic of decreasing and then increasing.(3)There was a significant difference in the relationship between energy transition and urban-rural income gaps in cities in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,with the upstream showing an inverted U-shaped relationship and the middle reaches showing a U-shaped relationship,and the downstream showing no significant correlation.This suggests that the energy transition paths of cities in the upstream region were gradually moving towards a fair direction,while the opposite was true in the midstream region,and that urban and rural residents in the downstream region were less sensitive to the socioeconomic effects caused by energy transition.[Conclusion]Therefore,diversified energy transition policies should be formulated in accordance with the actual development of the upstream,midstream and downstream,so as to effectively prevent the negative impacts of the transition and actively promote the just energy transition and the balanced development of urban and rural regions.

energy transitionurban-rural income gapsfixed effects modelspatiotemporal evolu-tionU-shaped relationshipYangtze River Economic Belt

张军梅、杨德伟、张帅、纪翌佳、孟海珊、万敏、杨行

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西南大学地理科学学院,重庆 400715

能源转型 城乡收入差距 固定效应模型 时空演变 "U"型关系 长江经济带

国家自然科学基金项目西南大学青年团队专项

42171280SWU-XJPY202307

2024

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.408
ISSN:1007-7588
年,卷(期):2024.46(9)