首页|美国能源独立对全球能源贸易网络的影响——基于贸易流的视角

美国能源独立对全球能源贸易网络的影响——基于贸易流的视角

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[目的]国际能源贸易深刻影响各国(地区)能源安全与社会生产发展,为认识资源供给冲击如何影响区域能源贸易,亟需对美国能源独立事件深入分析。[方法]本文基于能源贸易流视角,使用复杂网络方法探究2000-2020年美国能源独立进程对全球能源贸易网络的动态影响。[结果]①美国自21世纪以来逐渐摆脱对石油进口的高度依赖,成为石油进出口并重的能源贸易国。天然气方面,美国大幅加强了天然气出口,成为天然气贸易的主要出口国。②美国主要的能源来源国(地区)向美出口的能源量及比重明显下降,寻求其他国家(地区)作为新的能源出口对象;美国多数能源出口对象国(地区)与美国的能源贸易量及比重上升,增加了对美国能源的进口依赖。③能源贸易竞争方面,在能源进口中,美国与其他能源需求国家(地区)的竞争关系减弱,在能源出口中,美国与其他能源供给国家(地区)的竞争关系增强。[结论]美国能源供应的增长将促进能源出口国(地区)之间的竞争,包括中国在内的能源需求国家(地区)可以通过拓展进口渠道,增加能源进口量等方式降低能源安全风险。
The impact of U.S.energy independence on global energy trade networks:A trade flow-based perspective
[Objective]International energy trade plays a crucial role in influencing national energy security and socio-economic development across regions.In order to understand how resource sup-ply shocks affect regional trade,it is urgent to analyze U.S.energy independence.[Methods]This study aims to analyze U.S.energy independence from the perspective of energy trade flows and its effect on the global energy trade network over the period from 2000 to 2020.A comprehensive anal-ysis is provided using complex network analysis methods to track and explore the dynamic effects that the U.S.energy independence process has exerted on the global energy trade network during this time frame.[Results](1)The research revealed that the United States has reduced its high de-pendence on petroleum imports and emerged as a significant energy trading nation,balancing both petroleum imports and exports.At the same time,the United States has greatly strengthened its ex-port of natural gas,becoming a major exporter in the natural gas trade networks.(2)For trading partners of the United States,most energy-exporting countries(regions)have decreased the volume and proportion of energy trade with the United States and expanded their energy export targets.En-ergy-importing countries(regions)have increased their energy trade volume and proportion with the United States,thus increasing their dependence on American energy imports.(3)With regard to energy trade competition,the U.S.has experienced reduced competition with other energy-demanding countries or regions concerning energy imports.However,when it comes to energy exports,the U.S.faces intensified competition with other energy-supplying nations or regions as it continues to ex-pand its role in the global energy export market.[Conclusion]The expansion of U.S.energy sup-plies has introduced new dynamics into the global energy trade landscape,particularly by intensify-ing competition among energy-exporting countries.For energy-importing countries and regions,the rise of the U.S.as a key energy supplier presents opportunities to diversify energy sources,poten-tially reducing energy security risks related to supply disruptions.For instance,countries like China can mitigate energy security risks by diversifying their import channels,increasing energy trade vol-umes,and strengthening partnerships with a broader array of energy suppliers,including the U.S.,in order to safeguard their energy supply in an increasingly competitive environment.

energy trade networksresource supply shocksU.S.energy independencecomplex network methodenergy security

孔祥瑜、李虹

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北京大学经济学院,北京 100871

北京大学国家资源经济研究中心,北京 100871

能源贸易网络 资源供给冲击 美国能源独立 复杂网络方法 能源安全

国家社会科学基金重大项目国家自然科学基金面上项目

22VMG01272073007

2024

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.408
ISSN:1007-7588
年,卷(期):2024.46(9)