首页|地缘政治风险对中国战略性矿产资源供应安全影响的研究进展与展望

地缘政治风险对中国战略性矿产资源供应安全影响的研究进展与展望

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地缘政治已成为影响全球资源市场的重要力量。中国战略性矿产资源进口依赖度高,防范资源海外供应的地缘政治风险是深入实施国家资源安全战略的关键。本文从资源地缘政治理论视角,系统梳理了中国战略性矿产资源供应安全的发展历程、关键问题,及当前面临的地缘政治风险。进一步文献分析识别出,地缘政治风险影响中国战略性矿产资源供应的主要路径有3种:"风险—来源危机—供应不确定性"路径,即战争、政局不稳等地缘政治风险引发来源危机对资源供应稳定造成威胁;"风险—供需失衡—价格不确定性"路径,即区域冲突、经济制裁等地缘政治风险影响市场供需网络造成资源价格波动;以及"风险—通道脆弱—运输不确定性"路径,即地区局势不稳、通道霸权等地缘政治风险加剧运输通道脆弱性造成资源运输受阻;同时,系统回顾了主要实证研究,发现相关研究普遍支持地缘政治风险对中国资源供应存在负向影响,但也提出这种影响并非线性的,影响路径间存在相互作用关系。此外,归纳了文献中的资源地缘安全保障策略。最后,从增强资源地缘政治风险量化评估、深入地缘政治风险下资源价格变动规律探索、强化对资源运输过程中地缘政治风险的动态识别等方面提出了未来应深入研究的方向。
A review of research on the geopolitical risks and security of China's critical mineral supply
At present,geopolitics has become a significant force affecting the global resource mar-ket.China has a high dependence on importing strategic mineral resources.It is crucial to prevent the threatening impact of geopolitical risks on resource import security,and to deepen the imple-mentation of the national resource security strategy.This article reviewed relevant literature both in China and internationally from the perspective of resource geopolitics theory,systematically analyz-ing the development process,key issues,and current geopolitical risks faced by China's critical mineral resource supply security.Further literature analysis identified that there are three paths that geopolitical risks affect China's resource import.The first path is"risk-demand and supply imbal-ance-price uncertainty",where the geopolitical risks would make the resource price fluctuate by af-fecting the market demand-supply network;The second path is"risk-source crisis-supply uncertain-ty",which refers to the threat to the stability of resource supply posed by geopolitical risks through triggering import source crises;The third path is"risk-channel vulnerability-transportation uncer-tainty",which means that geopolitical risks exacerbate the vulnerability of import transportation channels and further cause disruption to resource transportation.A systematic review of main em-pirical studies found that relevant studies generally support the negative impact of geopolitical risks on China's resource import,but also suggest that this impact is nonlinear and there is an interactive relationship between the impact paths.This article also summarized the resource geo-security strat-egies in the literature.On this basis,future research directions are proposed,including improving the assessment of resource geopolitical risk,exploring the pattern of price changes under geopoliti-cal risk,strengthening the dynamic identification of geopolitical risk in resource transportation pro-cess.

strategic mineral resourcesgeopolitical risksupply securityimpact mechanismre-search review

马天宇、赵鹏军、张梦竹

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北京大学深圳研究生院,深圳 518055

北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871

战略性矿产资源 地缘政治风险 供应安全 影响机理 研究综述

2024

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.408
ISSN:1007-7588
年,卷(期):2024.46(11)