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中国南北差距扩大背景下区域间隐含碳和增加值流动

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[目的]经济发展差距的变化所引发的隐含碳与增加值转移改变较少受到关注,研究二者之间的匹配关系可揭示中国南北区域差距扩大前后贸易流动的不均衡性。[方法]本文在2013年后中国南北经济差距扩大的背景下,基于环境拓展的多区域投入产出模型来追踪南北间的隐含碳与增加值流动变化新特征,明确主导产业和地区,并结合结构分解方法分析背后的驱动因素。[结果]①从2007年、2012年再到2017年南北隐含碳转移总量均处于增长态势,但在2013年南北差距扩大之后,由南向北的隐含碳流动增长相对较快,遏制了原净碳转移的快速扩大趋势并趋于规模平衡;②南北之间增加值的流动格局,2007年、2012年为由南向北流动,到2017年转变为由北向南,此外北方的电力、热力生产供应业和石油、天然气的开采业分别是隐含碳和增加值的重要生产方,而南方的纺织业和服务业分别是其隐含碳和增加值的主导行业。③碳排放与增加值在南北方间转移主要原因均是来自城镇居民消费。[结论]南北差距扩大后,南方向北方继续转移碳排放,同时增加值则出现由北向南的转移,南北间经济收益与碳流动开始处于不均衡态势。未来在制定碳减排和交易政策规定时,需要基于低碳消费的生活理念,更多关注重点行业和地区。
Interregional flows of embodied carbon and value-added in the context of widening north-south disparities in China
[Objective]Shifts in embodied carbon and value-added transfers resulting from changes in economic development disparities have received little attention.The relationship between these two factors determines the imbalance in trade flows,making this study highly significant.[Meth-ods]Against the backdrop of the widening economic gap between southern and northern China in 2013,this study utilized an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model to track the new characteristics of embodied carbon and value-added flows between the two regions.It also employed a structural decomposition method to analyze the dominant industries and related factors driving these changes.[Results]The study revealed that,from 2007 to 2012 and up to 2017,the to-tal volume of embodied carbon transfer between southern and northern China experienced growth.However,after the expansion of the economic gap in 2013,the rapid growth of carbon emissions from the south to the north helped restrain the previous rapid growth rate of net carbon transfer,bringing it to a relative balance.The flow pattern of value added between the two regions shifted from a positive net flow from the south to the north in 2007 and 2012 to a negative net flow in 2017.Furthermore,the power and heat production and supply industry in the north,as well as the petroleum and natural gas extraction industry,were crucial suppliers of both embodied carbon and value added.In contrast,the textile industry and service industry in the south acted as significant producer of embodied carbon and value added.[Conclusion]After the widening of the north-south gap,the south continued to transfer carbon emissions to the north while simultaneously the country experienced a transfer of value added from the north to the south.This resulted in an imbalanced economic benefit and carbon flow situation between the two regions.Future policies related to car-bon reduction and trading should prioritize key industries and regions,taking into account a low-carbon consumption lifestyle.

disparities between southern and northern Chinaembodied carbon transfervalue-added transferinput-output modelstructural decomposition analysisChina

宋文明、汤淑娟、邹嘉龄、唐志鹏

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中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101

中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049

广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院,广州 510020

北京物资学院经济学院,北京 101149

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南北差距 隐含碳转移 增加值转移 投入产出模型 结构分解分析 中国

2024

资源科学
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国自然资源学会

资源科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.408
ISSN:1007-7588
年,卷(期):2024.46(11)