Construction and application of decoupling model between sustainable development and carbon emissions
[Objective]This study aimed to develop a quantitative assessment method to measure the degree of decoupling between sustainable development and carbon emissions,provide a tool to support the evaluation of the decoupling relationship between sustainable development goals(SDGs)and carbon emissions,help decision makers find the carbon reduction shortcomings of sus-tainable development actions,and provide a scientific basis for promoting the comprehensive de-coupling of sustainable development and carbon emissions.[Methods]Based on the scientific the-sis that climate change seriously threatens human survival and sustainable development,the con-struction mechanism and classification standards of the Tapio decoupling model were used in the study.Based on the United Nations'sustainable development goals,the elastic change relationship between the sustainable development indicator growth rate and the carbon emission growth rate was used to measure the decoupling relationship between them,and the SDGs and carbon emission decoupling estimation model(SDCEM)was constructed.The SDCEM model is being applied to calculate and analyze the decoupling status of carbon emissions in terms of comprehensive sustain-able development levels and four sustainable development indicators across 30 provinces of China from 2006 to 2021.[Results](1)Based on the SDCEM decoupling comprehensive index,China's sustainable development level is evolving towards decoupling from carbon emissions.From 2006 to 2021,the number of provinces in China with weak decoupling status between sustainable devel-opment and carbon emissions increased from 8 to 14,the number of provinces in expansionary con-nection increased from 5 to 11,and the number of provinces in expansionary negative decoupling decreased from 13 to 4.(2)There were large inter-provincial and intra-provincial differences in the decoupling status of sustainable development and carbon emissions in the 30 provinces,and the de-coupling process varied.The decoupling status of sustainable development and carbon emissions in the Northeast China,North China,Central China,and Southwest China was relatively good.In 2021,most provinces in these regions were already in a weak decoupling state;the decoupling sta-tus of sustainable development and carbon emissions in Central South China,East China,and Northwest China was relatively poor overall.In 2021,most provinces were still in an expansionary connection state.(3)In 2021,12 out of the 30 provinces had a lower decoupling status than be-tween economic growth and carbon emissions,mainly due to the poor decoupling status between non-economic factors and carbon emissions.[Conclusions](1)The SDCEM model is suitable for measuring the decoupling relationship between sustainable development and carbon emissions,and has high sensitivity,significance,and policy effect manifestation;(2)The impact of non-economic factors on carbon emissions is becoming increasingly significant.The construction of ecological civilization has a significant effect on promoting the decoupling of sustainable development and carbon emissions.We recommend to strengthen the decarbonization management of non-economic factors in the sustainable development goals in the future,and jointly achieve the sustainable devel-opment and dual carbon goals.
carbon emissionssustainable developmentdecoupling effectSustainability Decou-pling with Carbon Emission Model(SDCEM)welfare analysisChina
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
