Comprehensive grain production capacity in major grain producing areas of China under the"Grain Storage in Land and Technology"strategy
[Objective]Food security is the foundation for national security and a prerequisite for the stable development of the economy and society.Guided by the strategy of"Grain Storage in Land and Technology",this study evaluated the comprehensive grain production capacity of major grain producing areas of China,providing a reference for national food security decision making.[Methods]This study employed data from the"Third National Land Survey",panel data,literature reviews,and secondary resources to assess the current comprehensive grain production capacity,evaluated the impact of factors such as cultivated land area,multiple cropping index,fertilizer application,agricultural mechanization,breeding techniques,rural labor aging,and natural disasters,and predicted the comprehensive grain production capacity in 2035.[Results](1)An assessment framework for comprehensive grain production capacity was developed,taking into account key factors that directly affect grain production,such as cultivated land resources and human utilization.The comprehensive grain production capacity in China's main grain producing areas is expected to reach 766 million tons in 2035,1.45 times the current capacity.(2)The ranking of grain production capacity of provinces from highest to lowest is as follows:Heilongjiang>Henan>Shandong>Hebei>Jilin>Inner Mongolia>Anhui>Jiangsu>Sichuan>Hunan>Liaoning>Hubei>Jiangxi.(3)The contributions of factors to the increasing production potential are as follows:cultivated land area(0.96%),multiple cropping index(0.45%),fertilizer application(0.66%),agricultural mechanization(2.58%),breeding techniques(28.17%),rural labor aging(1.32%),and natural disasters(-2.90%).[Conclusion]Promoting crop variety improvement and innovation,enhancing the efficiency of agricultural mechanization investments,and strengthening agricultural disaster prevention,reduction,and relief capabilities should be key directions for China's future innovation-driven transformation of agriculture and continuous improvement of comprehensive grain production capacity.
"Grain Storage in Land and Technology"strategygrain production capacitymajor grain producing areasfood securityassessment
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
