Future Aging of Rural Population:Migration and Backflow
As China's urbanization process accelerates,migration has become the dominant pattern of rural population development.The intertwined phenomena of population outflow and backflow migration play a significant role in the aging process of the rural population.Based on census data and relevant demographic data,this paper uses the cohort-component method to estimate the overall aging trend of rural population from 2022 to 2050 by setting factors including fertility,outflow,and backflow migration.On this basis,it analyzes the future aging structure of the rural elderly population.The research results show that after considering the factor of population backflow,the scale and degree of rural elderly population have both increased,and the backflow migration of middle-aged and elderly people accelerates rural population aging.The degree of aging in rural areas continues to deepen,with an evident gender imbalance among the elderly population.The elderly dependency ratio is continuously increasing,placing a heavy burden on the rural labor force.The policy implications by the conclusions of this article are to reasonably estimate the degree of rural aging,correctly understand the trends in rural population changes,and pay attention to issues of elderly poverty and addressing the issue of aging.We should take perspective of development,so as to unleash the demographic dividend of the rural elderly population.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
