Trade Effects of Geopolitical Relations:Evidence from the Southwest Border Region of China and ASEAN Countries
Based on event data analysis method,this paper explores the impact of geopolitical relations between China and ASEAN countries on bilateral trade flows.The empirical analysis results indicate that geopolitical relations have a significant impact on bilateral trade,and there is regional heterogeneity,that is,the impact on non-neighboring countries is higher than that of neighboring countries.The implementation of the RCEP agreement could ease the impact of geopolitical shocks.In terms of international trade,the southwest border area should pay attention to risk prevention and response mechanism construction,formulate flexible trade policies and investment strategies,so as to cope with the uncertainty brought about by the change of geopolitical relations.In terms of regional cooperation,the southwest border region should sufficiently utilize its geographical,regional and resource advantages,and build a value chain and supply chain specialization system based on regional interconnection.It should deepen bilateral or multilateral trade ties with partner countries within the framework of the RCEP so as to counterbalance the impact of geopolitical risks on bilateral trade flows.
geopolitical relations between China and ASEAN countriesevent data analysis methodbilateral trade between the southwest border areas and ASEAN countries
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