目的 了解持续控制大气细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM2.5)浓度的人群健康收益.方法 收集2015-2020年宜宾市大气污染物的日均浓度、气象因素及死亡数据,采用广义相加模型(generalized additive models,GAM)分析大气PM2.5浓度与居民非意外死亡寿命损失年(years of life lost,YLL)的关系,假设空气质量达到2021年世界卫生组织空气质量指南(World Health Organization Air Quality Standards,WHO AQG)和中国国家环境空气质量二级标准时可以避免的YLL,同时根据性别和年龄分组寻找易感人群.结果 大气PM2.5(lag0)浓度每增加10 μg/m3时,居民非意外死亡YLL增加0.72(95％CI:0.68～0.76)年,男性(lag01)和女性(lag03)分别增加 0.61(95％CI:0.55～0.67)年和 0.91(95％CI:0.84～0.99)年,＞65 岁(lagO2)和≤65 岁(lag0)分别增加 1.12(95％CI:1.05～1.19)年和 0.45(95％C/:0.39～0.50)年.PM2.5 浓度达到 WHO AQG 的标准时和国家二级标准时的可避免 YLL 分别为 929.23(95％CI:877.02～981.44)年和 124.70(95％CI:117.69～131.71)年.结论 大气PM2.5污染可能增加居民非意外死亡YLL,尤其对女性和老年人群(＞65岁)的影响更为明显.当PM2.5浓度达到更低浓度阈值时,可以获得更高的健康收益.
Population health benefit evaluation of continuous control of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration
Objective To explore the health benefits of continuous control of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration.Methods The average daily concentration of atmospheric pollutants,meteorological factors and mortality data in Yibin City from 2015-2020 were collected.Generalized additive models(GAM)were used to analyze the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and years of life lost(YLL).The avoidable YLL was calculated assuming that the air quality meet the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines(WHO AQG)and China's National Ambient Air Quality Standard Level 2.Gender and age groups were used to identify susceptible populations.Results When the concentration of PM2.5(lag0)increased by 10 μg/m3,the non-acidental death YLL of residents increased by 0.72(95％C/:0.68-0.76)years,male(lag01)and female(lag03)increased by 0.61(95％C/:0.55-0.67)and 0.91(95％CI:0.84-0.99)years,respectively.At the same time＞65(lag02)years old and ≤65(lag0)years old increased by 1.12(95％CI:1.05-1.19)and 0.45(95％CI:0.39-0.50)years,respectively.The YLL that could be avoided when PM2.5 concentration reached the WHO AQG standard and the national secondary standard was 929.23(95％CI:877.02-981.44)and 124.70(95％C/:117.69-131.71)years,respectively.Conclusions PM2.5 pollution may increase non-acidental deaths YLL,especially in women and the elderly(＞65 years old).When PM2.5 concentrations reach lower concentration thresholds,higher health gains can be achieved.
Fine particulate matterYears of life lostGeneralized additive modelsAssessment of health benefits
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