Research on forecast of total health expenditure in Tianjin City based on grey Markov model
Objective To analyse the total health expenditure and its financing structure in Tianjin City from 2011-2020,and forecast the future development of the total health expenditure and its financing structure in Tianjin City during the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025),so as provide reasonable suggestions for formulating and improving the health policy of relevant units and effectively reducing the burden of medical care on residents.Methods Based on the relevant data from the Tianjin Statistical Yearbook from 2011-2020,a grey Markov prediction model was established.Excel software was used to analyze the current development status of total health expenditure and financing structure,and the trend of changes in total health expenditure and financing structure in Tianjin City during the 14th Five Year Plan period were predicted and analyzed.Results From 2011-2020,the total health expenditure in Tianjin City increased from 41.11 billion yuan to 90.787 billion yuan,with an average annual growth rate of 12.08％.The proportion of government health expenditure decreased from 25.4％to 21.1％,social health expenditure increased from 37.8％to 49.8％,and the proportion of personal health expenditure decreased from 36.8％to 29.1％.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the total health expenditure in Tianjin City continued to steadily increase,with an annual growth rate decreasing.The proportion of personal health expenditure decreased to 25.68％.Conclusion The financing structure of health expenditure in Tianjin City is gradually becoming more rational,with social health expenditure becoming the main source of funding for total health expenditure.However,there is still room for a decrease in the proportion of personal health expenditure.The proportion of personal health expenditure should be steadily reduced in order to alleviate the burden of individual medical treatment for residents.
Grey Markov modelTotal health expenditureFinancing structureForecastTianjin City
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
