Epidemiological characteristics and trends based on joinpoint regression model of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in a district in Chongqing City from 2009 to 2022
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control and response of respiratory infectious diseases.Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the surveillance data of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in a certain district in Chongqing City from 2009 to 2022,and used Joinpoint Regression Model to analyze the change trend of incidence rate.Results The incidence rate of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in a certain district in Chongqing City from 2009 to 2022 was 175.53/100 000 with the total of 14 545 cases.Tuberculosis(n=5 507),varicella(n=4 309),influenza(n=2 638)and mump(n=1 466)had the most reported cases of all.The incidence rate was higher in males than in females(x2=28.307,P＜0.01).Most of the case were aged between 5 and 35 which accounted for 60.70％of the total notifiable respiratory infectious diseases cases.The peak incidence occurred from November to December,and there was another small peak from May to July.The overall change trend of the incidence rate of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in this district in Chongqing City from 2009 to 2022 was stable,with annual percent change(APC)=average annual percent change(AAPC)=1.6(P＞0.05).The incidence rate of tuberculosis(APC=AAPC=-3.2,P＜0.01)and mumps(APC=AAPC=-10.4,P＜0.05)showed a downward trend.The incidence rate of varicella showed an upward trend from 2009 to 2018(APC=19.1,P＜0.01)and then there was no statistically significant difference in the trend change from 2018 to 2022(APC=-15.9,P＞0.05).There was no statistically significant difference in the trend change of influenzas incidence rate from 2009 to 2011(APC=-76.7,P＞0.05),and it was an upward trend from 2011 to 2022(APC=26.1,P＜0.01).Conclusion Different prevention and control measures should be taken according to the different epidemiological characteristics of respiratory infectious diseases,and particular emphasis on the important role of vaccines in the prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases.
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