Analysis on public health resource allocation and forecast in Sichuan Province based on the perspective of resource distribution
Objective To analyze the allocation and demand forecast of public health resources in Sichuan Province,and provide scientific basis for optimizing and developing public health resources in Sichuan Province.Methods The allocation of public health resources in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2020 was analyzed using the index of resource distribution(IRD)based on the entropy weight method and health resource density index(HRDI)and compared with the average level in China,and the gray prediction model GM(1,1)was used to predict the demand for public health resources in Sichuan Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Results In 2020,the per capita total health expenditure in Sichuan Province was 4 830.52 yuan,and the number of health technicians and beds per 1,000 population was 0.483 and 0.167,respectively.Since 2013,the IRD of public health resources in Sichuan Province was lower than the average level in China,which indicated that the adequacy of public health resource allocation in Sichuan Province was lower than the average level in China.Taking HRDI of China as the reference standard,the deficiency of health technicians and number of beds in Sichuan Province was not less than 3 413 and 927,respectively,with a deficiency ratio of not less than 14.15％and 8.54％,respectively.According to the forecast,public health resources in Sichuan Province were growing continuously,and the total health expenditure,health technicians and number of beds are expected to reach 642 007.1 million yuan,47 299.274 people and 16 990.614 beds in 2025,respectively,with an average annual growth rate of 9.49％,3.61％and 4.06％,respectively compared to 2020.Conclusion The overall allocation of public health resources in Sichuan Province is lower than the average level in China,and the number of health technicians and beds in Sichuan Province is still a large shortage compared to the average level in China,and the allocation of public health resources needs to be further strengthened.
Public health resourcesResource distribution indexHealth resource density indexGrey prediction model GM(1,1)Entropy weight method
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
