目的 评估日均气温对镇江市居民寿命损失年(years of life lost,YLL)的影响.方法 收集2015-2022年镇江市逐日气象、死因数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型定量分析日均气温和不同死因别死亡YLL的关联.结果 日均气温与寿命损失年呈现"U"形曲线关联.高温对YLL的影响在当天即出现,仅持续2～4天,低温对YLL影响在滞后第2～4天才出现,可持续至第8～10天.高温对非意外死亡、循环系统死亡YLL(95％CI)的累积效应均在滞后3天时达到最大,分别为164.93(95％CI:125.33～204.52)年、104.83(95％C/:84.66～125.00)年,对呼吸系统死亡YLL(95％CI)的累积效应在滞后7天时最大,为21.50(95％CI:13.17～29.83)年.低温对非意外死亡、循环系统疾病死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡YLL(95％CI)的累积效应在滞后 14 天时达到峰值,分别为 149.74(95％CI:46.66～252.82)年、98.10(95％C/:43.06～153.13)年、24.69(95％CI:5.79～44.15)年.高温对女性YLL累积效应大于男性,低温仅对男性YLL有影响.高温和低温对≥65岁人群YLL均有影响,但对＜65岁人群无影响.结论 温度过高和过低均会显著增加镇江市居民YLL,女性和65岁以上人群对高温敏感,男性和65岁以上人群对低温敏感.
Time series analysis of the impact of daily air temperature on the annual life loss of residents in Zhenjiang City
Objective To evaluate the impact of daily average air temperature on the years of life loss(YLL)of residents in Zhenjiang City.Methods Daily meteorological and cause of death data were collected in Zhenjiang City from 2015 to 2022,and the association between daily average air temperature and YLL due to different causes of death was quantified using a distributed lagged nonlinear model.Results The association between daily average air temperature and YLL showed a"U"shaped curve.The impact of high temperature on YLL appeared on the same day and lasted only 2-4 days,while the impact of low temperature on YLL appeared on the 2-4 days with a lag and lasted until 8-10 days.The cumulative effect of high temperature on non-accidental death and circulatory system disease death YLL(95％CI)reached its maximum at a lag of 3 days,which were 164.93(95％CI:125.33-204.52)years and 104.83(95％CI:84.66-125.00)years,respectively.The cumulative effect on respiratory system death YLL(95％CI)reached its maximum at a lag of 7 days,which was 21.50(95％CI:13.17-29.83)years.The cumulative effect of low temperature on non-accidental death,circulatory system disease death and respiratory system disease deaths YLL(95％CI)peaked at a lag of 14 days,which were 149.74(95％CI:46.66-252.82)years,98.10(95％CI:43.06-153.13)years,and 24.69(95％CI:5.79-44.15)years,respectively.The cumulative effect of high temperature on YLL was greater in women than in men,while low temperature only had an impact on the YLL in men.Both high and low temperatures had an impact on YLL of people aged≥65,but had no impact on people aged＜65.Conclusion Both high and low temperatures can significantly increase the YLL of residents in Zhenjiang,and women and people over 65 years old are sensitive to high temperatures,while men and people over 65 years old are sensitive to low temperatures.
AirtemperatureYears of life lostTime series analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
