Analysis on spatio-temporal cluster of mumps in Lu'an City from 2017 to 2022:Based on township scale
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering of mumps based on township scale in Lu'an City,provide data support for precise prevention and control.Methods The mumps monitoring data of 139 townships in Lu'an City from 2017 to 2022 were collected,and the descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze its epidemic characteristics.SaTScan 9.6 software was used to perform spatiotemporal scanning analysis on monitoring data,to detect its temporal and spatial clustering.ArcGIS 10.7 software was used to analyze monitoring data by the global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis methods.Results From 2017 to 2022,there were 4 475 cases of mumps in Lu'an City,and the average annual incidence rate was 12.73/100 000.The incidence rate was highest in 2019(12.73/100 000).The incidence rate appeared a tendency towards arise and then decline.There was a seasonality before 2020,with peak seasons of late spring,early summer and winter,while the seasonality of the onset was not significant after 2021.The mumps mainly occurred in the children and students under 15 years old,accounting for 77.16％of total cases.The top three county/district of the incidence were Jinzhai County(28.32/100 000),Huoshan County(20.79/100 000),Yeji District(18.82/100 000).The top three town of the incidence were Xiaohuashan Street(76.80/100 000),Wangcheng Street(68.69/100 000)and Taiyang Town(64.93/100 000).The incidence of mumps from 2017 to 2022 showed spatial correlation.The results of local autocorrelation analysis from 2017 to 2022 showed that the"high-high"area covered Chengbei Township,Sanshipu Town,Qingshuihe Street,Sanliqiao Street,Dongshi Street,Zhongshi Street,Gulou Street,Wangcheng Street,Xiaohuashan Street,Pingqiao Township,Chengnan Town,Zhongdian Township,Xianshengdian Township,Xin'an Town,Hanbaidu Town,Fenlukou Town,and Shahe Township,Guanmiao Township,Wujiedian Town,Gubei Town,Guoziyuan Township,Tiantangzhai Town,Qingshan Town of Jinzhai County,and Shantushi Town,Taipingfan Township of Huoshan County,and the widest distribution ranged in 2019.The spatio-temporal scanning analysis identified a total of four clustering areas,the primary clustering area was a cluster of 12 townships centered around Dongshi Street in the urban area,and four secondary areas were centered around townships in Jinzhai County and Huoshan County,including 11 townships in Jinzhai County and 2 townships in Huoshan County.The clustering time was from October 2018 to April 2019.The spatial clustering of different methods has similarities.Conclusion From 2017 to 2022,there is the spatial-temporal clustering of mumps incidence in Lu'an City,the range of hotspots of the disease is relatively stable,and it is necessary to strengthen targeted prevention and control measures in the main urban area,as well as some townships in Jinzhai County and Huoshan County in the future.
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