首页|碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化

碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化

扫码查看
原文链接
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
  • 维普
为探究碳中和目标下减排措施对粤港澳大湾区臭氧(O3)形成的潜在影响,我们重点研究了粤港澳大湾区城区和郊区的O3浓度和敏感性变化.本文基于中国未来排放动态评估模型(Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China,简称DPEC)提供的"双碳"目标下的排放情景数据,采用WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ空气质量模式,分别模拟了我国2020年、2030 年和2060年这三个关键节点年份的O3浓度,并利用内嵌于CMAQ的DDM(Decoupled Direct Method)模块计算了各地O3对NOx和VOC的一阶敏感系数SO3_NOx和SO3_VOC,以揭示O3对这两种主要前体物排放的响应敏感程度.研究表明:(1)对于O3浓度的变化,从不同季节来看,与2020年相比,粤港澳大湾区地区2030年和2060年冬季O3浓度均呈上升趋势.从不同城市来看,与其他城市相比,深圳的O3浓度一直处于明显的上升趋势.(2)对于O3敏感性的变化,SO3_NOx整体呈上升趋势,且负值区域逐渐减少,正值区域逐渐扩大.2030年SO3_NOx负值绝对值下降,NOx滴定作用减弱.2060年,粤港澳大湾区大部分地区SO3_NOx转化为正值.对SO3_VOC来说,未来情景中研究区域全年均为正值且整体呈下降趋势.
The Ozone Concentration and Changes in the Sensitivity of Its Formation in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)from a Carbon Neutral Perspective
To investigate the potential impact of emission reduction measures on ozone(O3)formation under the carbon neutrality target,we examined the changes in O3 concentration and their sensitivity to various parameters in the urban and suburban areas of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).In this study,we used the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF),the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions(SMOKE)and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling system(CMAQ)air quality model to simulate O3 formation in three key years of 2020,2030 and 2060,based on the Ambitious-pollution-Neutral-goal scenario data from the Dynamic Projection for Emissions in China(DPEC)model.The decoupled direct method(DDM)module embedded in CMAQ was used to calculate the first-order sensitivity coefficients of O3 to nitrogen oxides(SO3_NOx)and volatile organic compounds(SO3_VOC).The results show several important trends in the O3 concentrations and sensitivity.(1)For the changes in O3 concentrations,in terms of different seasons,the O3 concentration in the GBA region shows an increasing trend in winter in both 2030 and 2060 compared to 2020.In terms of different cities,the O3 concentration in Shenzhen shows a significant increasing trend compared to the other cities.(2)For changes in O3 sensitivity,SO3_NOx shows an increasing trend,with the negative area declining and the positive area increasing.In 2030,the negative absolute value of SO3_NOx is reduced,indicating that the NOx titration effect will be weakened.In 2060,SO3_NOx becomes positive in most areas of the GBA region.For SO3_VOC,the future scenario shows positive values throughout the study area for all years,but a decreasing trend.

ozone sensitivityfuture trendGuangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)CMAQ-DDM

郝江虹、李悦、赵莹、程沁毓、赵秀勇、陈东升

展开 >

北京工业大学环境与生命学部,北京区域空气污染控制重点实验室,北京 100124

交通运输部规划研究院交通排放控制监测技术实验室,北京 100028

国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司,清洁高效燃煤发电与污染控制国家重点实验室,南京 210031

臭氧敏感性 未来趋势 粤港澳大湾区 CMAQ-DDM

国家自然科学基金Opening Project of State Key Laboratory for Clean and Efficient Coalfired Power Generation and Pollution Control

51978011D2022FK082

2024

10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2024.01.018

资源与生态学报(英文版)
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

资源与生态学报(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.388
ISSN：1674-764X
年,卷(期)：2024.15(1)
  • 2