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台商大陆农业投资效应分析——基于VAR和VEC模型

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受海峡两岸特殊的政治、经济背景影响,台商大陆农业投资有其特殊性,有别于一般农业外商直接投资(FDI).基于 1991-2016 年台商大陆农业投资数据及大陆农业产值数据,通过向量自回归(VAR)、向量误差修正(VEC)模型,探讨了台商农业投资对大陆东、中、西部地区农业经济发展之影响.研究结果表明:台商农业投资与大陆东、中、西部农业发展存在长期均衡关系,长期来看,台商农业投资对大陆东、中、西部农业发展均有不同程度的促进作用,但投资效应存在明显的区域差异:脉冲响应及方差分解表明台商农业投资对西部地区农业经济发展的正向效应最显著,且明显高于东部地区,对中部地区农业经济发展贡献很小;VEC模型分析表明:短期内,台商农业投资对大陆东部地区的农业发展有较为明显的正向作用,对中西部地区农业发展的正向作用不显著.大陆各区域在利用台商农业投资时应根据实际情况加以区别对待,制定符合区域实际的台商农业投资政策.
Effect of China's Taiwan Agricultural Investment in China's Mainland:Based on the Model of VAR and VEC
Based on the data from the 1991-2016 agricultural investment of China's Taiwan in China's Mainland and the agricultural GDP of the latter,through models of vector autoregressive(VAR)and vector error correction(VEC),the influences of China's Taiwan agricultural investment on the development of agriculture in the eastern,central,and western regions of China are discussed.The results show a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's Taiwan agricultural investment and agricultural development in China's eastern,central,and western re-gions.In the long term,China's Taiwan investment in agriculture in the eastern,central,and western regions of China have certain positive promoting effect on their agricultural development.However,there is an obvious re-gional diversity in investment effect:Impulse response and variance decomposition show that the positive effect from China's Taiwan agricultural investment in China's western region agricultural development is most significant,and it is significantly higher than that in the eastern region;its contribution to the central region's agricultural de-velopment is little.VEC model analysis shows that in the short term,China's Taiwan investment in agriculture has a significant positive effect on the agricultural development of China's eastern region,but not on the agricultural de-velopment of the central and western regions.

China's Taiwanagricultural investmentVAR modelChina's MainlandVEC model

李航飞、杨林

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韶关学院旅游与地理学院, 广东韶关 512005

台商 农业投资 VAR模型 大陆 VEC模型

国家自然科学基金Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project of GuangdongScience and Technology Planning Project of Shaoguan

41771136GD22CYJ26200811154532282

2024

10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2024.02.005

资源与生态学报(英文版)
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

资源与生态学报(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.388
ISSN：1674-764X
年,卷(期)：2024.15(2)
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