在全球变化和气候变化的背景下,量化气候变化和人类活动对孟加拉国、印度和缅甸(BIM)农田净初级生产力的影响,对识别产量限制因素、制定合理的农业管理计划及提高农田产量具有重要意义.本研究基于GLOPEM-CEVSA模型,通过整合遥感数据和LAI模拟及模拟三种情景下的农田NPP:实际NPP(NPPA)、仅受温度和水分影响的NPP(NPTWT)和仅受温度影响的NPP(NPPT),分析了1982-2015年水分和人类活动对BIM的影响及时空变化.研究发现,水分胁迫对孟印缅地区的农田NPP起主导作用.近30多年BIM地区的温度变化可使NPPT以10.66 g C m-2 yr-1的速率增加,但结合实际的水分条件,NPPWT的增长趋势仅为0.96 g C m-2 yr-1.与仅受温度影响的NPPT相比,水分胁迫可使整个研究区的NPPWT降低65.46%,而且印度西北部和德干高原中部的农田NPP受到水分胁迫的影响强烈.此外,1982-2015 年,BIM中水分胁迫对NPP的影响呈现出显著的增长趋势,其中缅甸的增长率最高.BIM地区的NPPWT和NPPA之间的差距呈显著下降趋势,表明近 30 多年来人类活动对NPP有积极影响.因此,如果采取合理有效的作物管理,相较于 NPPWT,BIM 地区的 NPPA仍有 36.80%的提升潜力,其中印度和缅甸分别有39.20%和38.29%的潜力.本研究结果可为BIM地区农业生产及农业水资源管理利用提高农田生产力提供参考,并为量化气候变化和人类活动在区域范围内的影响提供方法参考.
The Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Cropland Net Primary Productivity in Bangladesh,India and Myanmar
Under global change and climate variations,determining the impacts of climate change and human ac-tivities on cropland net primary productivity(NPP)in Bangladesh,India and Myanmar(BIM)is of great significance for identifying yield-limiting factors,making adaptive agricultural management plans,and improving yields.Based on the GLOPEM-CEVSA model,through an integration of remote sensing data and LAI simulation,we investigated the impacts and spatiotemporal changes of water and human activities on BIM from 1982 to 2015.Three types of cropland NPPs were considered:actual NPP(NPPA),NPP affected by temperature and water(NPPWT),and NPP only affected by temperature(NPPT).Our analysis revealed that the water factor plays a predominant role in de-termining the NPP level in the BIM.Temperature variability was found to be conducive to NPPT,exhibiting an in-creasing trend of 10.66 g C m-2 yr-1.However,this trend was partially offset by precipitation variability,resulting in a net increase of 0.96 g C m-2 yr-1.In comparing temperature-driven NPP to temperature and water-driven NPP,water stress caused NPPT to decrease by 65.46%compared to NPPWT for the entire region.Cropland NPP in northwestern India and the central Deccan Plateau were significantly affected by water stress.Moreover,the in-fluence of water on NPP in the BIM exhibited a substantial upward trend from 1982 to 2015,with Myanmar expe-riencing the most significant increase.The gap between NPPWT and NPPA in BIM demonstrated a notable de-creasing trend during the same period,underscoring the positive impact of human activities on NPP.Inferences drawn from our findings suggest that with the implementation of rational and efficient crop management practices,there is a 36.80%potential improvement in NPPA compared to NPPWT in the BIM region,with India and Myanmar showing potential increases of 39.20%and 38.29%,respectively.These insights provide guidance for practical measures aimed at water resource management to enhance cropland productivity in the BIM,and they present a methodology for quantifying the effects of climatic changes and human activities at a regional scale.
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