摘要
基于2000-2020年乌蒙山区人口和经济数据,综合运用地理集中度、重心模型、不均衡指数和不一致指数等方法,探究乌蒙山区人口和经济的非均衡格局,并利用地理探测器和时空地理加权模型对其影响因素进行探析.结果发现:(1)人口和经济地理集中度空间分布存在一定偏离,人口分布呈东北高西南低的空间格局,经济分布呈南高北低的空间格局;(2)人口重心和经济重心分别向山区几何重心的东北和正南方向发生偏移,且经济重心偏移幅度大于人口重心偏移幅度;(3)人口与经济分布不均衡程度呈下降趋势,但区域发展仍存在差异;两者空间分布不一致的区域范围基本保持稳定,呈"北高南低"的特征,经济主导型县区数量增加,其余类型县区数量减少;(4)经济实力、社会消费水平、产业结构、城市发展水平、政府调控能力和医疗基础设施是影响乌蒙山区人口与经济分布不一致的主要因素,且这些因素的作用效果均体现在推动经济发展方面.
Abstract
Based on the population and economic data of the Wumeng Mountain Area from 2000 to 2020,this study explored the imbalanced spatiotemporal patterns of population and economy in the area using methods such as the geographic concentration,gravity model,imbalance index,and inconsistency index.The study also analyzed the influencing factors using geodetectors and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression models.The results show four key aspects of this phenomenon.(1)The spatial distributions of the population and economic geographic concentrations deviate from their ideal distributions.The population distribution shows a spatial pattern of being higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest,while the economic distribution shows a spatial pattern of being higher in the south and lower in the north.(2)The population and economic gravity centers have shifted toward the northeast and south relative to the geometric center of the mountain area,respectively,and the eco-nomic center has shifted more than the population center.(3)The degree of imbalance between the population and economic distributions is decreasing,but regional development disparities still exist.The region with inconsistent spatial distributions between population and economy remains stable,showing a"north high,south low"pattern,with an increase in the number of counties dominated by the economy and reductions in the numbers of counties in other categories.(4)Economic power,social consumption level,industrial structure,urban development level,government regulation capacity,and health care infrastructure are the main factors affecting the inconsistent dis-tributions of population and economy in Wumeng Mountain Area,and the effects of these factors are reflected in the promotion of economic development.
万方数据