摘要
乡村旅游是推进城乡融合进程、促进区域协调发展的重要措施.基于旅游系统驱动及系统科学等理论,本文构建了包含需求、供给、媒介、支持四个子系统在内的乡村旅游系统动力学模型,并借助情景模拟方法预测乡村旅游发展的最优机制.结果表明:(1)研究构建的乡村旅游发展动力系统避免了以往子系统划分的格式化现象.(2)在自然发展(NDM)、需求驱动(DDM)、供给驱动(SDMe)、媒介驱动(MDM)、支持驱动(SDMu)以及协同驱动(SDMy)发展情景下,2035年乡村旅游发展指数分别为0.678、0.702、0.755、0.715、0.776、0.836,SDMy是阳朔县乡村旅游发展的理想机制.(3)根据乡村旅游发展指数特征,阳朔县乡村旅游发展可分为徘徊增长、快速发展和衰退减弱三个阶段.(4)阳朔县乡村旅游供给指数增长缓慢且始终低于 0.8,是今后结构优化的关键环节.研究为阳朔县提出了乡村旅游发展方向和后发动力,可以加快推进阳朔县及同类型地区的城乡一体化进程.
Abstract
Rural tourism plays a crucial role in promoting the process of urban-rural integration and regionally co-ordinated development.Drawing on theories of tourism system drive and system science,this study constructed a rural tourism system dynamics model with four subsystems:demand,supply,media,and support.Subsequently,we predicted the optimal mechanism for rural tourism development using scenario simulation methods.The find-ings were four-fold.(1)The rural tourism development dynamics system constructed in this study overcame the limitations of previous subsystem divisions.(2)Under the development scenarios of Natural development mecha-nism(NDM),Demand driven mechanism(DDM),Supply driven mechanism(SDMe),Media driven mechanism(MDM),Support driven mechanism(SDMu),and Synergistic driven mechanism(SDMy),the rural tourism devel-opment index values in 2035 were 0.678,0.702,0.755,0.715,0.776,and 0.836,respectively.Among these sce-narios,SDMy emerged as the ideal mechanism for rural tourism development in Yangshuo County.(3)Based on the characteristics of the rural tourism development index,rural tourism in Yangshuo County has undergone three stages:fluctuating growth,rapid development,and recession.(4)Yangshuo County's rural tourism supply index grows slowly and is always below 0.8,which is a key link for future structural optimization.This study proposes a direction for rural tourism development in Yangshuo and a later impetus,which can accelerate the process of ur-ban-rural integration in Yangshuo and similar areas.
基金项目
National Social Science Fund of China(17BGL053)
Guangxi Academy of Sciences Basic Scientific Research Operation Fund Project(CQZ-D-1904)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据