Spatial Differences in the Response of Runoff to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Yiluo River Basin
Accurately identifying the spatial differences in the response of regional runoff to climate and land use changes can clarify the mechanism of regional runoff changes and provide a scientific basis for adopting the ap-propriate water resource protection policies.In this study,based on the Budyko theory,we quantitatively evaluated the spatial differences in the response of runoff to climate and land use changes in the Yiluo River Basin after 2000;calculated the sensitivity of runoff changes to precipitation(P),potential evapotranspiration(E0)and land use changes;and quantified the contributions of those three factors to runoff changes.The findings revealed that with decreasing elevation,precipitation gradually decreases,potential evapotranspiration gradually increases,and run-off gradually decreases in the Yiluo River basin.Influenced by the population density,both cultivated land and construction land are widely distributed with the middle and lower reaches of the basin,while the upper reaches are dominated by forest land.Compared with the base period(1985-1989),precipitation and potential evapotranspira-tion in the watershed during the change period(2000-2017)basically showed decreasing and increasing trends,respectively,with obvious spatial differentiation.P increased significantly in the upper reaches of the Yi River,with an average of 35.2 mm(‒83.8-84.7 mm),while P increased and decreased in the other five subbasins,but the decreasing trend was more prominent.Among the subbasins,the upper and middle reaches of the Luo River showed the largest reductions in P,with an average of ‒34.2 mm(‒145.9-20.6 mm),whereas the middle reaches of the Yi River showed the smallest reduction in P,with an average of ‒10.9 mm(‒84.2-59.5 mm).The E0 in the different regions during the change period showed an increasing trend,and the increase in E0 gradually decreased from the upper reaches to the lower reaches.The E0 in the upper reaches of the Luo River showed the largest change,with an average of 45.3 mm(38.2-48.3 mm),while the lower reaches of the Yiluo River showed the smallest change,with an average of 7.3 mm(‒3.2-17.1 mm).Land use changes were primarily from cultivated to construction land in the middle and lower reaches.Runoff changes were positively correlated with precipitation changes and negatively correlated with potential evapotranspiration and land use changes.The absolute values of the sensitivity coefficients of runoff to these environmental factors decreased with lower altitude,indicating a re-duced responsiveness of the basin runoff under a warming and drying climate trend.Reductions in precipitation and changes in potential evapotranspiration have led to reductions in runoff ranging from 4.7 to 17.4 mm and from 0.7 to 9.1 mm,respectively,while land use changes led to corresponding runoff reductions of 23.0 to 46.5 mm,suggesting that land use changes are more likely to trigger runoff changes in the basin than climatic fluctuations.Given the dominance of cultivated land,especially in the middle and lower reaches,and the region's high susceptibility to human activities,there has been a significant reduction in runoff in recent years.The contribution of land use change to the runoff reduction in the Yiluo River Basin was greater at lower elevations,up to 86.1%,while climatic effects were more significant at higher elevations,up to 27.8% .Therefore,promoting the implementation of projects such as water ecological restoration and returning farmland to forests are of great significance to curb the over-exploitation of groundwater,to formulate scientific management and scheduling policies in order to realize the transformation of the water balance in the river basin from a non-steady state to a steady state,and to promote the integrity of the ecosystem of the lower reaches of the Yellow River and ensure its sustainable development.
Budyko hypothesisrunoffattribution analysisspatial differenceYiluo River Basin
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