厘清区域碳收支格局并确定利益主体碳补偿标准,是构建区域碳补偿机制和推动区域实现碳中和目标的关键.通过RS和GIS技术解译天山世界自然遗产地1980、2000、2010和2020 年四期土地利用面积,利用净生态系统生产力模型核算遗产地森林、草地、水域和耕地生态系统碳汇量;运用IPCC碳排放因子法和碳足迹法核算旅游业和畜牧业碳排放量,分析遗产地碳汇演变特征、碳排放结构特征及碳收支格局.进一步通过碳补偿系数修正模型和游客支付意愿法,核算遗产地游客碳补偿额度.结果显示:(1)遗产地1980-2020年碳汇量呈下降趋势,尤其是草地、耕地、林地和湿地的碳汇量均出现不同程度的下降.(2)遗产地整体处于碳赤字状态,达8.67×106 t CO2,旅游碳排放是主要碳源,占比超过95%,畜牧碳排放仅占4.12%.区域人类活动碳排放强度已超过其生态碳汇承载力,游客是遗产地主要的碳补偿主体.(3)利用碳赤字模型核算出遗产地 2020 年碳补偿标准为656.21万吨,基于碳赤字和游客支付意愿两个视角,核算遗产地游客理论补偿额度为25.23元/人,愿意补偿的额度为14.78元/人(非参数估计)和 5.93 元/人(参数估计).两种方法核算的游客碳补偿标准存在差异,在制定利益主体碳补偿标准时应厘清补偿主体责任权重,并综合考量地区碳收支状况和补偿主体支付意愿水平,科学、合理的碳补偿标准是助推区域实施碳补偿机制的有效手段.未来研究重点应聚焦在如何构建碳补偿机制,尽快制定碳补偿原则、补偿范围、补偿模式与方式,完善碳权交易市场、碳核算信息披露预警、碳补偿管理监督、碳补偿激励约束等配套机制.
Carbon Budget Pattern and Carbon Compensation Standard of Xinjiang Tianshan World Natural Heritage Site
Clarifying the pattern of regional carbon balance and determining the carbon compensation standards of stakeholders are the keys to building a regional carbon compensation mechanism and promoting regional carbon neutrality.The land use area of the Xinjiang Tianshan World Natural Heritage Site in 1980,2000,2010,and 2020 was interpreted using remote sensing technology(RS)and geographic information system(GIS),and the net ecosystem productivity model was used to calculate the carbon sink of the forest,grassland,water area,and cul-tivated land ecosystem in the heritage site.The IPCC carbon emission factor method and carbon footprint method were used to calculate the tourism and animal husbandry carbon emissions,and the carbon sink evolution char-acteristics,carbon emission structure characteristics,and carbon budget pattern of the heritage sites were ana-lyzed.Further,the carbon compensation for tourists in the heritage site was calculated using the carbon compen-sation coefficient correction model and the tourists'willingness to pay method.The results demonstrated that(1)the carbon sinks of the heritage sites decreased from 1980 to 2020,with those of grassland,cultivated land,forest land,and wetland exhibiting different degrees of decline.(2)The whole heritage site had a carbon deficit of 8.67×106 tCO2.Tourism carbon emission was the main carbon source,accounting for more than 95%,whereas livestock carbon emissions accounted for only 4.12%.The carbon emission intensity of regional human activities exceeded its ecological carbon sink carrying capacity,and tourists were the main carbon compensators in heritage sites.(3)The theoretical compensation of tourists in the heritage site was 25.23 yuan p-1 yr-1,and the willingness to com-pensate was 14.78 yuan p-1 yr-1(nonparametric estimation)and 5.93 yuan p-1 yr-1(parametric estimation).Further,the standards for carbon compensation by tourists calculated using the two methods differed.Therefore,when formulating the carbon compensation standards for stakeholders,the responsibility weight of the compensation subject should be clarified,and the regional carbon balance and the willingness to pay of the compensation subject should be comprehensively considered.By adopting scientific and reasonable carbon compensation standards,carbon compensation mechanisms in the region can be effectively implemented.
carbon compensation standardcarbon budget patterncarbon deficitWorld Natural Heritage Site
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