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糖尿病肾脏疾病预后影响因素的COX比例风险回归模型分析

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目的 基于COX比例风险回归模型分析糖尿病肾脏疾病(diabetic kidney disease,DKD)预后的影响因素,为临床早期评估和防治DKD提供科学的依据。方法 收集多中心(河南中医药大学第一附属医院、河南中医药大学第三附属医院、河南省中医院及郑州市人民医院)2010-2021年就诊治疗的DKD患者资料,包括一般资料、实验室指标、中医辨证分型及中医药治疗,以肾小球滤过率(eGFR)下降≥50%、血肌酐(Scr)翻倍、DKD 5期、死亡为结局指标,随访其发生时间及情况,利用COX比例风险回归模型分析筛选DKD预后影响因素。结果 本研究最终纳入1947例患者,随访时间为4。65(4。557~4。746)年,发生复合终点事件305例(15。67%)。单因素COX回归分析结果表明,不同年龄、DKD病程≥4年、饮酒史、吸烟史、高血压、冠心病、脑血管病、糖尿病足、糖尿病眼病、糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c)、血尿酸(SUA)、Scr、24 h尿蛋白定量(24 h-UTP)、eGFR、湿热血瘀证、脾肾气虚兼湿聚血瘀证、脾肾阳虚兼血瘀证、中药熏洗、服用中药患者DKD预后情况比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0。05)。多因素COX回归分析结果表明,年龄[HR(95%CI)=2。52(1。92,3。30)]、DKD 病程[HR(95%CI)=1。62(1。09,2。42)]、吸烟史[HR(95%CI)=1。61(1。13,2。29)]、饮酒史[HR(95%CI)=1。41(1。01,1。95)]、脑血管病[HR(95%CI)=1。33(1。01,1。75)]、糖尿病眼病[HR(95%CI)=1。43(1。13,1。82)]、SUA[HR(95%CI)=1。72(1。26,2。33)]、24 h-UTP[HR(95%CI)=1。48(1。14,1。91)]、脾肾气虚兼湿聚血瘀证[HR(95%CI)=2。22(1。44,3。43)]与DKD发生终点事件的风险关系密切(P<0。05),服用中药[HR(95%CI)=2。57(2。00,3。31)]能够减少终点事件的发生(P<0。05)。结论 年龄、DKD病程、吸烟史、饮酒史、脑血管病、糖尿病眼病、SUA、24 h-UTP、脾肾气虚兼湿聚血瘀证是影响DKD患者预后的危险因素,而服用中药治疗为其保护因素。
COX Proportional Hazards Regression Model Analysis for Factors Affecting Prognosis of Diabetic Kidney Disease
Objective Based on the COX proportional hazards regression model,the prognostic factors of diabetic kidney dis-ease(DKD)were analyzed to provide a scientific basis for early clinical evaluation and prevention of DKD.Methods It collected the data of DKD patients in multi-center(The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine,The Third Affil-iated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine,Henan Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Zheng-zhou People's Hospital)from 2010 to 2021,including general data,laboratory indicators,TCM differentiation classification and TCM treatment.Glomerular filtration rate(eGFR)decreased by≥50%,serum creatinine(Scr)doubled,DKD stage 5 and death were used as the outcome indicators,and the time and situation of follow-up outcomes were followed.The COX proportional haz-ards regression model was used to analyze and screen the prognostic factors of DKD.Results In this study,1947 patients were fi-nally included,with a follow-up time of 4.65(4.557-4.746)years,and 305 cases(15.67%)had composite endpoint events.The results of univariate COX regression analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences in the prognosis of DKD patients with different ages,DKD course≥4 years,alcohol history,smoking history,hypertension,coronary heart disease,ce-rebrovascular disease,diabetic foot,diabetic eye disease,glycosylated hemoglobin(HbA1 c),blood uric acid(SUA),Scr,24 h u-rine protein quantification(24 h-UTP),eGFR,heat-dampness and blood stasis syndrome,Qi deficiency of spleen and kidney combined with dampness accumulation and blood stasis syndrome,Yang deficiency of spleen and kidney combined with blood sta-sis syndrome,Chinese medicine fumigation and prognosis of patients taking traditional Chinese medicine(P<0.05).Multifacto-rial COX regression analysis showed that age[HR(95%CI)=2.52(1.92,3.30)],DKD course[HR(95%CI)=1.62(1.09,2.42)],smoking history[HR(95%CI)=1.61(1.13,2.29)],alcohol history[HR(95%CI)=1.41(1.01,1.95)],cerebro-vascular disease[HR(95%CI)=1.33(1.01,1.75)],diabetic eye disease[HR(95%CI)=1.43(1.13,1.82)],SUA[HR(95%CI)=1.72(1.26,2.33)],24 h-UTP[HR(95%CI)=1.48(1.14,1.91)],Qi deficiency of spleen and kidney com-bined with dampness accumulation and blood stasis syndrome[HR(95%CI)=2.22(1.44,3.43)]closely associated with the risk of an endpoint event in DKD(P<0.05).Taking traditional Chinese medicine[HR(95%CI)=2.57(2.00,3.31)]reduced the occurrence of endpoint events(P<0.05).Conclusions Age,DKD course,smoking history,alcohol history,cerebrovascular disease,diabetic eye disease,SUA,24 h-UTP,Qi deficiency of spleen and kidney combined with dampness accumulation and blood stasis syndrome are the risk factors affecting the prognosis of DKD patients,and taking traditional Chinese medicine treat-ment is its protective factor.

diabetic kidney diseaseprognosisinfluencing factorsCOX proportional hazards regression model

陈占科、陈凯丽、应春苗、冯素香、崔伟锋、徐江雁、袁婷婷、李耀洋

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河南中医药大学第一附属医院,河南郑州 450000

河南中医药大学,河南郑州 450046

河南省中西医结合医院,河南郑州 450000

糖尿病肾脏疾病 预后 影响因素 COX比例风险回归模型

国家重点研发计划项目国家中医临床研究基地科研专项国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目河南省中医药科学研究专项河南中医药大学科研苗圃工程项目河南中医药大学科研苗圃工程项目河南中医药大学博士科研启动基金项目

2020YFE02018002021JDZY0682021104710442021104710022022ZY1007MP2022-1MP2022-882022BSJJ2007

2024

中华中医药学刊
中华中医药学会 ,辽宁中医药大学

中华中医药学刊

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.007
ISSN:1673-7717
年,卷(期):2024.42(2)
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