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强国建设两阶段农业劳动生产率目标预测与提升路径

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提高农业劳动生产率是建设社会主义现代化强国和农业强国的关键任务。农业劳动生产率的增长来源于农业劳动力劳均经营土地面积的增加、土地产出率的提高与单位农产品价值的提升。改革开放以来,中国农业劳动生产率大幅提高,其中土地单产上升的贡献率持续下降,而劳均经营土地面积增加的贡献率不断上升。2010-2020年,中国农业劳动生产率的增长中19。9%来自土地单产上升,67。8%来自劳均经营土地面积增加。综合考虑按总增长率、按构成项的增长率和按与农业发达国家的相对水平进行预测,中国农业劳均增加值在2035年将超过19000美元(2015年不变价格),在2050年将超过50000美元,达到农业发达国家水平。未来较长一段时间,中国农业劳动生产率的增长将主要来自劳均经营土地面积的增加,在此过程中,要促进新型农业经营主体培育,促进劳动节约型技术进步,促进农地经营权流转并保障经营权稳定,促进以增值增效为导向的农业结构优化调整。
Target Prediction and Improvement Path of Agricultural Labor Productivity in Two Stages of a Strong Country Construction
Increasing agricultural labor productivity is a key task in building a socialistic modernized and agricultural strong coun-try.The increase in agricultural labor productivity comes from the increase in per capita cultivated land area,the improvement of land output rate,and the increase in unit agricultural product value.Since the reform and opening-up,China's agricultural labor productiv-ity has significantly improved,with the contribution rate of the increase in land yield continuing to decline,while the contribution rate of the increase in per capita cultivated land area continues to rise.From 2010 to 2020,19.9%of the growth in agricultural labor pro-ductivity in China came from the increase in land yield per unit area,and 67.8%came from the increase in per capita cultivated land area.Taking into account the overall growth rate,growth rate by component,and relative level with developed agricultural countries,it is predicted that the per capita added value of agricultural labor force in China will exceed 19,000 US dollars(at constant prices in 2015 price)by 2035 and 50,000 US dollars by 2050,reaching the level of developed agricultural countries.For a relatively long period of time in the future,the growth in China's agricultural labor productivity will mainly come from the increase in the per capita cultivat-ed land area.In this process,it is necessary to promote the cultivation of new agricultural entities,the progress of labor-saving technol-ogies,the circulation of farmland management rights and the stability of management rights,and the optimization and adjustment of ag-ricultural structure guided by value-added and efficiency enhancement.

a socialistic modernized strong countryagricultural labor productivityagricultural land management rightstechnical progress

刘长全、杨光

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中国社会科学院农村发展研究所(北京 100732)

成都市智慧蓉城研究院(四川成都610041)

社会主义现代化强国 农业劳动生产率 农地经营权 技术进步

财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系资助

CARS-36

2024

中州学刊
河南省社会科学院

中州学刊

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.854
ISSN:1003-0751
年,卷(期):2024.(6)