首页|Forecasting natural gas consumption in China by Bayesian model averaging
Forecasting natural gas consumption in China by Bayesian model averaging
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NETL
NSTL
With the rapid growth of natural gas consumption in China, it is in urgent need of more accurate and reliable models to make a reasonable forecast. Considering the limitations of the single model and the uncertainty within model output, this paper presents a combinative method to forecast natural gas consumption by Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). It can effectively handle the uncertainty associated with model structure and parameters, and thus improves the forecasting accuracy. The results showed that the BMA method provides a flexible tool to forecast natural gas consumption; the consumption in the year of 2015, 2020 and 2030 would be 165.5 billion cubic meters (bcm), 225.1 bcm and 336.7 bcm, respectively. This study can provide insightful information on natural gas consumption in the future.
Bayesian model averagingNatural gas consumptionForecast
Jun Yang、Wei Zhang
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Chongqing University, School of Economics and Business Administration, 400030, Chongqing, P.R.China
2016
Energy education science and technology, Part A. Energy science and research
NETL
NSTL
