首页|Data transformation models utilized in Bayesian probabilistic forecast considering inflow forecasts

Data transformation models utilized in Bayesian probabilistic forecast considering inflow forecasts

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  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • Iwa Publishing
This paper presents a new Bayesian probabilistic forecast (BPF) model to improve the efficiency and reliability of normal distribution transformation and to describe the uncertainties of medium-range forecasting inflows with 10 days forecast horizons. In this model, the inflow data will be transformed twice to a standard normal distribution. The Box-Cox (BC) model is first used to quickly transform the inflow data with a normal distribution, and then, the transformed data are converted to a standard normal distribution by the meta-Gaussian (MG) model. Based on the transformed inflows in the standard normal distribution, the prior and likelihood density functions of the BPF are established, respectively. In this study, the newly developed model is tested on China's Huanren hydropower reservoir and is compared with BPFs using MG and BC, separately. Comparative results show that the new BPF model exhibits significantly improved data transformation efficiency and forecast accuracy.

Bayesian probabilistic forecastforecasting inflowmedium-rangenormal distribution transformationuncertainty

Xu, Wei、Fu, Xiaoying、Li, Xia、Wang, Ming

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Chongqing Jiaotong Univ, Coll River & Ocean Engn, Natl Engn Res Ctr Inland Waterway Regulat, Chongqing, Peoples R China|Sichuan Univ, State Key Lab Hydraul & Mt River Engn, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China

Sichuan Univ, State Key Lab Hydraul & Mt River Engn, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China

Chongqing Jiaotong Univ, Coll River & Ocean Engn, Natl Engn Res Ctr Inland Waterway Regulat, Chongqing, Peoples R China

2019

10.2166/nh.2019.028

Hydrology research: An international journal

Hydrology research: An international journal

EIISTP
ISSN：0029-1277
年,卷(期)：2019.50(5/6)
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