查看更多>>摘要:Evaluation criteria play a key role in assessing the performances of hydrological models. Most previous criteria are based on the standard least square method, which assumes model residuals to be homoscedastic and is, therefore, not suitable for assessing cases with heteroscedastic residuals. Here, we compared a heteroscedastic and symmetric efficiency (HSE) criterion with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the heteroscedastic maximum-likelihood estimator (HMLE) by running a monthly water balance model with four parameters (i.e., the abcd model) in 138 basins located in the continental United States derived from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment dataset. The results show that compared to the NSE, the HSE and HMLE are both more effective for stabilizing variance and producing more uniform performances with flow magnitude, and the latter is slightly more effective than the former on stabilizing the residual heteroscedasticity, with the aid of an additional parameter.
查看更多>>摘要:Soil salinization is a crucial issue in arid and semi-arid regions, especially for reservoir-based irrigation systems. In this study, the HYDRUS-1D model was used to investigate soil salinity resulting from seepage from a lowland reservoir in Xinjiang province, China. After successfully developing a model to simulate field observations, it was used to evaluate four hypothetical scenarios with different groundwater (GW) salinities and depths to GW. The model was calibrated, validated, and run for scenarios with periods of 367, 363, and 436 days. Root mean square error values of soil water and soil salinity ranged from 0.000 to 0.053 cm(3)/cm(3) and 0.56 to 5.66 g/L, respectively, during calibration, and from 0.009 to 0.039 cm(3)/cm(3) and 1.86 to 7.52 g/L, respectively, during validation. The results indicate that soil salinity downstream of the reservoir depends strongly on the depth to the GW level, while GW salinity has a much smaller impact. Controlling leakage from lowland reservoirs to avoid rising GW levels is therefore important to minimize soil salinization. These findings are generally useful for lowland reservoir design and construction, and for irrigation management in arid regions.
查看更多>>摘要:The hydrogeochemical and stable isotopes of water (delta D and delta O-18) were combined to investigate the deep groundwater recharge processes in the geologically complex intermountain basin (Kathmandu Valley). Results of the stable isotopic composition of the deep groundwater compared with global and local meteoric water lines and d-excess showed the deep groundwater as a meteoric water origin which is insignificantly affected by evaporation. The analysis suggests the deep groundwater was recharged during high rainfall periods (wet season). Additionally, the control of seasonal variation was absent in the deep groundwater and in the spring water samples. The large range of isotopic composition distribution was due to the altitude affect, whereas variations are from the various geological settings of the infiltration encountered during the recharge processes. The tri-linear diagram showed Na-K-HCO3 and Ca-Mg-HCO3 as the two major water types. The distribution of water types in this intermountain basin was found to be unique compared to other basins. Ionic concentration of the samples was found to be higher in the central part than in the periphery due to the ion exchange processes. This study determines the spatial distribution of various recharge processes that depends upon the environment during rainfall and the geological settings.
查看更多>>摘要:Hydrological drought forecasting is considered a key component in water resources risk management. As sustained meteorological drought may lead to hydrological drought over time, it is conceptually feasible to capitalize on the dependency between the meteorological and hydrological droughts while trying to forecast the latter. As such, copula functions are powerful tools to study the propagation of meteorological droughts into hydrological droughts. In this research, monthly precipitation and discharge time series were used to determine Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Hydrological Drought Index (SHDI) at different time scales which quantify the state of meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Five Archimedean copula functions were adopted to model the dependence structure between meteorological/hydrological drought indices. The Clayton copula was identified for further investigation based on the p-value. Next, the conditional probability and the matrix of forecasted class transitions were calculated. Results indicated that the next month's SHDI class forecasting is promising with less than 10% error. Moreover, extreme and severe meteorological drought classes lead to hydrological drought condition with a more than 70% probability. Other classes of meteorological drought/wet conditions lead to normal hydrological (drought) condition with less than 50% probability and to wet hydrological condition with over 20% probability.
查看更多>>摘要:High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) offer opportunities for channel network extraction due to its representation of realistic topography. Channels are generally surrounded by well-defined banks that have a distinct signature in the contour lines. Contour curvature is one of the important topographic attributes usually used for channel head identification; however, the curvature at channel heads may vary considerably between and even within watersheds. Therefore, uncertainty exists in the extracted channel heads due to the specified curvature threshold. In this paper, the locations of channel heads in 14 small mountainous watersheds are obtained using a nonparametric method based on the shape of contour lines generated from DEMs with a spatial resolution of 1 m, and the channel head curvature is computed from the extracted channel heads. The spatial distributions of the channel head curvature in these 14 watersheds have been analyzed, and another two watersheds with field-mapped channel heads are selected for validation. The results indicate that: (1) the channel head curvature is sensitive to the local terrain and varies within and between watersheds; (2) the Gamma distribution effectively fits the spatial distribution of the channel head curvature in all the selected watersheds; and (3) constant threshold-based methods for channel head identification gain significant location errors even within a single watershed.
查看更多>>摘要:This paper presents a new Bayesian probabilistic forecast (BPF) model to improve the efficiency and reliability of normal distribution transformation and to describe the uncertainties of medium-range forecasting inflows with 10 days forecast horizons. In this model, the inflow data will be transformed twice to a standard normal distribution. The Box-Cox (BC) model is first used to quickly transform the inflow data with a normal distribution, and then, the transformed data are converted to a standard normal distribution by the meta-Gaussian (MG) model. Based on the transformed inflows in the standard normal distribution, the prior and likelihood density functions of the BPF are established, respectively. In this study, the newly developed model is tested on China's Huanren hydropower reservoir and is compared with BPFs using MG and BC, separately. Comparative results show that the new BPF model exhibits significantly improved data transformation efficiency and forecast accuracy.
查看更多>>摘要:Deep soil moisture is fundamental to hydrological cycle and ecosystem sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions. This study examined the combined effects of topographic domain and land use on the spatial variability of deep soil moisture (0-5 m) on the semi-arid Loess Plateau of China. Our results showed that deep soil moisture was generally temporally stable due to the thick loess soil in the plateau region. The depth-averaged soil moisture was slightly lower in the gully domain compared to the hillslope domain but was dependent on the soil depths. Soil moisture variability was clearly larger in the gully domain when compared with that in the hillslope domain in the 0-5 m profile. The mean soil moisture contents in comparable soil depths were lower in forestland than in grassland (and farmland), particularly in the hillslope domain. Land uses had similar vertical distribution characteristics of deep soil moisture for each topographic domain. Soil moisture showed highly significant positive correlations with slope aspect in the hillslope domain and with profile curvature in the gully domain.
查看更多>>摘要:In recent years, in Italy and elsewhere, regional regulations based on hydraulic-hydrologic invariance (HHI) principles have taken hold, especially for new development areas. Natural water retention measures (NWRMs) are among the most interesting options to provide the storage and infiltration capacities that are needed to achieve the HHI objectives. A procedure for the design of NWRMs in new development areas under HHI constraints is presented and is based on a simple combination of Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method for determining rainfall excess and lag-time method for simulating runoff propagation. Three types of NWRMs can be considered: rain barrels, drainage wells and drainage trenches; five types of synthetic hyetographs can be selected and three different approaches for the determination of critical storm duration applied. The results obtained by applying the procedure in a new development area located in northern Italy are illustrated and some general conclusions are drawn. It clearly emerges that practitioners should pay particular attention to the correct determination of design storm duration in order to avoid large underestimations of NWRMs size. Moreover, different combinations of the three NWRMs can provide the required reduction of peak of runoff after the transformation, but it appears that drainage trenches are more effective with respect to harvesting systems in reducing the peak runoff value.
查看更多>>摘要:Using data from 520 gauging stations in Britain and gridded rainfall datasets, the seasonality of storm rainfall and flood runoff is compared and mapped. Annual maximum (AMAX) daily rainfall occurs predominantly in summer, but AMAX floods occur most frequently in winter. Seasonal occurrences of annual daily rainfall and flood maxima differ by more than 50% in dry lowland catchments. The differences diminish with increasing catchment wetness, increase with rainfalls shorter than daily duration and are shown to depend primarily on catchment wetness, as illustrated by variations in mean annual rainfall. Over the whole dataset, only 34% of AMAX daily flood events are matched to daily rainfall annual maxima (and only 20% for 6-hour rainfall maxima). The discontinuity between rainfall maxima and flooding is explained by the consideration of coincident soil moisture storage. The results have serious implications for rainfall-runoff methods of flood risk estimation in the UK where estimation is based on a depth-duration-frequency model of rainfall highly biased to summer. It is concluded that inadequate treatment of the seasonality of rainfall and soil moisture seriously reduces the reliability of event-based flood estimation in Britain.
查看更多>>摘要:Overland flow is the initial driver of slope surface erosion. To discover resistance characteristics of overland flow influenced by rainfall intensity and roughness, indoor simulated rainfall experiments with six kinds of roughness, five flow discharges, and five rainfall intensities were investigated. Results showed that overland flow over rough surfaces could be considered as laminar and turbulent flow when using flow Reynolds number. According to roll waves observed, flow regimes belonged to the laminar transitional zone based on the viscosity-to-depth ratio. A critical water depth formula for overland flow was re-derived, and it showed that this test water flow consisted of supercritical flow in most cases, and subcritical flow in only a few cases. The flow resistance coefficient increased with increasing roughness, whereas it decreased as rainfall intensity increased. Considering the 'increasing resistance' phenomenon, this study focused on frictional resistance, thickness of the viscous sublayer, pressure drag and roll waves. Finally, a formula for sheet flow resistance was proposed based on resistance segmentation and multi-element linear regression. These findings are of significance both for understanding the characteristics and development of overland flow and overland flow dynamics.