首页|Contrasting seasonality of storm rainfall and flood runoff in the UK and some implications for rainfall-runoff methods of flood estimation

Contrasting seasonality of storm rainfall and flood runoff in the UK and some implications for rainfall-runoff methods of flood estimation

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  • NSTL
  • Iwa Publishing
Using data from 520 gauging stations in Britain and gridded rainfall datasets, the seasonality of storm rainfall and flood runoff is compared and mapped. Annual maximum (AMAX) daily rainfall occurs predominantly in summer, but AMAX floods occur most frequently in winter. Seasonal occurrences of annual daily rainfall and flood maxima differ by more than 50% in dry lowland catchments. The differences diminish with increasing catchment wetness, increase with rainfalls shorter than daily duration and are shown to depend primarily on catchment wetness, as illustrated by variations in mean annual rainfall. Over the whole dataset, only 34% of AMAX daily flood events are matched to daily rainfall annual maxima (and only 20% for 6-hour rainfall maxima). The discontinuity between rainfall maxima and flooding is explained by the consideration of coincident soil moisture storage. The results have serious implications for rainfall-runoff methods of flood risk estimation in the UK where estimation is based on a depth-duration-frequency model of rainfall highly biased to summer. It is concluded that inadequate treatment of the seasonality of rainfall and soil moisture seriously reduces the reliability of event-based flood estimation in Britain.

floodmatchingrainfallrainfall-runoffseasonalitysoil moisture

Ledingham, Jamie、Archer, David、Lewis, Elizabeth、Fowler, Hayley、Kilsby, Chris

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Mott MacDonald, St Vincent Plaza,319 St Vincent St, Glasgow G2 5LD, Lanark, Scotland

Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England|SBA Consulting Engineers & Scientists, Broughton Hall, Skipton BD23 3AE, N Yorkshire, England

Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England

2019

10.2166/nh.2019.040

Hydrology research: An international journal

Hydrology research: An international journal

EIISTP
ISSN：0029-1277
年,卷(期)：2019.50(5/6)
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