首页|Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations within a Satellite-Based Framework for Mountainous and High-Precipitation Regions: Case of the 2018 Kerala Floods

Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations within a Satellite-Based Framework for Mountainous and High-Precipitation Regions: Case of the 2018 Kerala Floods

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  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers
River regulation in mountainous and high-precipitation regions with hydropower dams often struggles to find the right balance between hydropower generation while ensuring flood protection for downstream inhabitants. The goal of hydropower generation is to keep reservoirs at the maximum pool as often as possible while for flood control, it is to maintain sufficient cushion in available storage to absorb an incoming flood wave. Using weather forecasts to proactively manage reservoir operations for such conflicting goals is now a well-known solution. However, this challenge of applying forecast-informed reservoir operations is magnified in developing regions where there is a paucity of ground data to track reservoir dynamics. In this study, we explore the utility of using publicly available precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) with a fully satellite-based reservoir tracking framework called reservoir assessment tool (RAT) to understand the potential of forecast-informed operations in highly mountainous and high-precipitation regions that are mostly ungauged. We apply our investigation to the case of damaging floods that took place in 2018 in the Southern Indian state of Kerala where river regulation is carried out with a fleet of hydropower dams. Our results show that the precipitation forecast from GEFS has sufficient skill, if focused on trends and bias adjustment, to predict reservoir inflow peaks up to a week ahead of time where the trend for the timing of the peak and rate of rise match well. Using our satellite-based RAT framework, we explore the range of actionable scenarios for dam operators that could potentially minimize downstream flood risk with this forecast-informed reservoir operations scheme.

Mountainous basinsPrecipitationFlood controlSatellite remote sensingForecastingReservoir operationsKerala

Pritam Das、Sarath Suresh、Faisal Hossain、Vivek Balakrishnan、Pallipadan Johny Jainet、Hyongki Lee、Miguel Laverde、Kamal Hosen、Chinaporn Meechaiya、Peeranan Towashiraporn

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Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

Land and Water Management Research Group, KSCSTE-Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kerala 673571, India

Hydrology and Climatology Research Group, KSCSTE- Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kerala 673571, India

Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX 77204

Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok 10400, Thailand

Geospatial Information, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok 10400, Thailand

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2025

10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6276

Journal of hydrologic engineering

Journal of hydrologic engineering

ISSN：1084-0699
年,卷(期)：2025.30(2)
  • 48