Abstract
As economic globalization and complex supply chains continue to expand, understanding the temporal dynamics and transfer patterns of CO_2 emissions is crucial for effective climate governance. This study employs the environmentally extended multi-region input-output (EE-MRIO) model and structural path analysis (SPA) methods to examine global carbon emissions from both production- and consumption-based perspectives during 1990-2019 and trace embodied carbon flows across sectors and nations. Our analysis reveals that global cumulative CO_2 emissions reached 860.7 Gt over the past three decades, with China (22.7%) and the U.S. (19.1%) leading production- and consumption-based emissions, respectively. Sectoral analysis shows energy-intensive industries such as electricity, gas and water (EGW) dominate production-based emissions (36.6%) and consistently served as net emission outflow sectors throughout the study period. Conversely, construction (CON) and education, health & other services (EHO) emerged as leading consumption-based emitters due to their reliance on embodied carbon, with CON transitioning from a net-zero sector to a net emission inflow sector. Nationally, 9.7% (83.2 Gt) of global CO_2 emissions have been embodied in international trade driven by final consumption, revealing distinct patterns: developing nations (e.g., China, India) consistently were net carbon exporters, while developed nations (e.g., U.S., Japan) were net importers. The global carbon flow network has become more complex, with traditional economic powers (U.S., Japan, China) retaining dominance, while India rises as a key emitter. These findings highlight the need for fair climate strategies that consider evolving supply chains and foster international cooperation.
NETL
NSTL
Elsevier