Abstract
Owing to the complex and varied topography of mountainous regions, land use displays pronounced verticalzonation characteristics. Guided by the carbon neutrality agenda, accurately projecting future trajectories of landgradient use and associated carbon emissions has become a fundamental prerequisite for advancing regional lowcarbontransitions. Based on the case of the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, this research first evaluatesthe current carbon emissions related to land gradient use, then constructs a coupled model to conduct multiscenariosimulations for optimizing land gradient use and forecasting future carbon trajectories. Results indicatethat the proposed simulation model effectively overcomes the limitations of conventional two-dimensionalapproaches, enabling refined projections of future land-use dynamics and associated carbon trajectories inmountainous regions. Across five projected scenarios, both the structural composition and spatial configurationof land gradient use exhibit significant vertical differentiation. Specifically, cropland, water bodies, urban land,rural settlements, and industrial-mining land decline with increasing gradient, while woodland and grasslanddisplay an inverted U-shaped distribution, and unused land expands markedly in higher-gradient zones. By 2035,total carbon emissions across all scenarios are projected to be lower than in 2020, with the SSP1-2.6 scenarioyielding the most substantial reduction, and the historical development scenario yielding the highest emissions.Aligning the future development trajectory of the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration with the SSP1-2.6pathway offers the greatest potential for supporting the carbon neutrality strategy. This study provides a scientificfoundation and methodological reference for enhancing territorial spatial optimization and promotinggreen, low-carbon development in mountainous regions.
NETL
NSTL
Elsevier