首页|Excess deaths from COVID-19 in Japan and 47 prefectures from January through June 2021
Excess deaths from COVID-19 in Japan and 47 prefectures from January through June 2021
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NSTL
Elsevier
? 2021 The Author(s)Objectives: In Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27. Study design: Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021. Methods: A quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval. Results: Since January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12–18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31–June 6 (excess deaths: 1431–2587; excess percentage: 5.95–10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures. Conclusions: For the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.
Nomura S.、Eguchi A.、Tanoue Y.、Yoneoka D.、Kawashima T.、Suzuki M.、Hashizume M.
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Department of Health Policy and Management School of Medicine Keio University
Department of Sustainable Health Science Center for Preventive Medical Sciences Chiba University
Institute for Business and Finance Waseda University
Graduate School of Public Health St. Luke's International University
Department of Mathematical and Computing Science Tokyo Institute of Technology
Center for Surveillance Immunization and Epidemiologic Research National Institute of Infectious
Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo
NSTL
Elsevier
