首页|The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19

The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19

扫码查看
原文链接
  • NSTL
  • Elsevier
One of the principal ways nations are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is by locking down portions of their economies to reduce infectious spread. This is expensive in terms of lost jobs, lost economic productivity, and lost freedoms. So it is of interest to ask: What is the optimal intensity with which to lockdown, and how should that intensity vary dynamically over the course of an epidemic? This paper explores such questions with an optimal control model that recognizes the particular risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system's capacity to deliver appropriate care. The analysis shows that four broad strategies emerge, ranging from brief lockdowns that only ``smooth the curve'' to sustained lockdowns that prevent infections from spiking beyond the healthcare system's capacity. Within this model, it can be optimal to have two separate periods of locking down, so returning to a lockdown after initial restrictions have been lifted is not necessarily a sign of failure. Relatively small changes in judgments about how to balance health and economic harms can alter dramatically which strategy prevails. Indeed, there are constellations of parameters for which two or even three of these distinct strategies can all perform equally well for the same set of initial conditions; these correspond to so-called triple Skiba points. The performance of trajectories can be highly nonlinear in the state variables, such that for various times t, the optimal unemployment rate could be low, medium, or high, but not anywhere in between. These complex dynamics emerge naturally from modeling the COVID-19 epidemic and suggest a degree of humility in policy debates. Even people who share a common understanding of the problem's economics and epidemiology can prefer dramatically different policies. Conversely, favoring very different policies is not evident that there are fundamental disagreements. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

COVID-19LockdownSkiba thresholdSIR modelOptimal control

Caulkins, Jonathan P.、Grass, Dieter、Feichtinger, Gustav、Hartl, Richard F.、Kort, Peter M.、Prskawetz, Alexia、Seidl, Andrea、Wrzaczek, Stefan

展开 >

Carnegie Mellon Univ, Heinz Coll, 4800 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

TU Wien, Dept Operat Res & Control Syst, Inst Stat & Math Methods Econ, Wiedner Hauptstr 8, A-1040 Vienna, Austria

Univ Vienna, Dept Business Decis & Analyt, Oskar Morgenstern Pl 1, A-1090 Vienna, Austria

Tilburg Univ, Tilburg Sch Econ & Management, Warandelaan 2, NL-5037 AB Tilburg, Netherlands

Univ Vienna, Wittgenstein Ctr Demog & Global Human Capital IIA, OeAW, Vordere Zollamtsstr 3, A-1030 Vienna, Austria

展开 >

2021

10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102489

Journal of Mathematical Economics

Journal of Mathematical Economics

SCI
ISSN：0304-4068
年,卷(期)：2021.93
  • 26
  • 24