首页|Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

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Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

species distribution modelinghabitat modelsprocess-based modelsglobal changeconservation planningLONG-DISTANCE DISPERSALCLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTSCAPE FLORISTIC REGIONINVASIVE ALIEN PLANTENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGEVEGETATION DYNAMICSSEED DISPERSALMIGRATION RATESRANGE SHIFTSECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES

Thuiller W、Albert C、Araujo MB、Berry PM、Cabeza M、Guisan A、Hickler T、Midgely GF、Paterson J、Schurr FM

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Univ Grenoble 1, UMR CNRS 5553, Lab Ecol Alpine, F-38041 Grenoble, France

CSIC, Museo Nacl Ciencias Nat, Dept Biodiversidad & Biol Evolutiva, E-28006 Madrid, Spain

Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England

Univ Helsinki, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland

Univ Lausanne, Dept Ecol & Evolut, Lab Biol Conservat, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland

Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, S-22362 Lund, Sweden

S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Kirstenbosch Res Ctr, Climate Change Res Grp, Cape Town, South Africa

Univ Potsdam, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany

Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

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2008

Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics

Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics

ISSN：1433-8319
年,卷(期)：2008.9(3/4)