首页|Abare: Zinc's '02 outlook gloomy; stacks to rise
Abare: Zinc's '02 outlook gloomy; stacks to rise
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NSTL
High levels of official zinc stocks this year, due to a lack of major production cutbacks, will limit the scope for price rises despite an expected pickup in world demand, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said. The government forecaster projects official zinc stocks to rise to the equivalent of around 9.5 weeks of consumption by the end of 2002. This is a large stockpile, compared with Abare's forecast that copper stocks will reach the equivalent of 7.7 weeks of consumption by end-2002. "In the absence of major (production) cutbacks, world zinc production is forecast to continue to exceed consumption in 2002," said Abare. Strong growth in China's zinc exports will also damp prices. It forecasts the spot London Metal Exchange zinc price to average 810 US dollars a metric ton in 2002, down 9 percent from 2001's average. The latest forecast is also lower than the 850 US dollars/ton Abare projected in its previous forecast issued in March. World zinc mine production is likely to grow by more than 1 percent in 2002 to 9.3 million tons, Abare said. This is despite the closure of major zinc mines in 2001. This year, a few new mines will reach full capacity and there could be restarts of idled capacity, said Abare. Abare expects to see increased production this year from the new 275,000-ton Antamina copper-zinc mine in Peru, the Lisheen mine in Ireland, and a likely restart of the Tara zinc mine in Ireland. The recently expanded Red Dog mine in the U.S. is also expected to add production in 2002 and 2003. In Australia, rising production is likely to come from an expected startup of the Mount Garnet mine in early 2003 and further production increases from the Century mine. The country's mine zinc production is estimated to have risen by 2.7 percent to 1.52 million tons in fiscal 2001-02, and is forecast to rise by another 2.4 percent in 2002-03, to 1.56 million tons. Abare expects world refined zinc production to rise by 2.6 percent to almost 9.5 million tons in 2002, and to grow moderately by 1.8 percent to around 9.6 million tons in 2003.
NSTL
