期刊,Journal of population economics 2023年36卷4期_国家学术搜索

期刊信息/Journal information

Journal of population economics

Springer International

主办单位：Springer International

出版周期：季刊

国际刊号：0933-1433

Journal of population economics/Journal Journal of population economicsISSHPAHCISSCI

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The impact of industrialization on secondary schooling during the industrial revolution: evidence from nineteenth-century France

Raphaël Franck

2007-2023页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract This study explores the impact of industrialization on secondary schooling in nineteenth-century France. As a source of exogenous variation in industrialization across the French territory, it takes advantage of the openings and closures of mines, which were supervised by the Ministry of Public Works, independently from the Ministry of Education. The results suggest that industrialization had a negative but mostly insignificant effect on high school enrollment. However, industrialization increased the share of high school pupils in applied sections and the wages of mathematics teachers.

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Survival of the literati: Social status and reproduction in Ming–Qing China

Sijie Hu

2025-2070页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract This study uses the genealogical records of 36,456 men from six Chinese lineages to test one of the fundamental assumptions of the Malthusian model: Did higher living standards result in increased reproduction? An empirical investigation of China between 1350 and 1920 finds a positive relationship between social status and net reproduction. Degree and office holders, or the literati, produced more than twice as many surviving sons as non-degree holders. The analysis explores the impact of social status on both the intensive and extensive margins of fertility—namely, reduction in child mortality and better access to marriages. The high income and strong kin network of the literati greatly contributed to their reproductive success.

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Technology and survival in preindustrial England: a Malthusian view

M. Aykut Attar

2071-2110页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract This paper contributes to the debate on the evolution of living standards in preindustrial England. It emphasizes the need to depart from the approach of focusing only on the time paths of observables, like income per capita and population size, in order to assess the validity of Malthusian predictions. It first constructs a Malthusian model and then develops a robust algorithm for identifying the latent forces that have shaped aggregate outcomes in the preindustrial era. The analysis suggests the existence of two distinct Malthusian regimes in preindustrial England: a survival-driven regime, where mortality is the main latent force in economic-demographic interactions, and a later technology-driven regime that emerges after the mid-fifteenth century and is characterized by both population and productivity growth but stable mortality and long-run stagnation in per capita income. The paper discusses the role of various historical accidents (e.g., the Black Death, the discovery of the New World, the English Reformation) in triggering the emergence of the technology-driven regime, and it also highlights some mediating mechanisms through which subsequent productivity growth may have been sustained. The existence of long-run stagnation in income per capita in England through the mid-seventeenth century, despite the technological dynamism of the early modern period, is consistent with the predictions of Unified Growth Theory.

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The long-term effect of wartime social networks: evidence from African American Civil War veterans, 1870–1900

Boxiao Zhang

2111-2143页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Temporary social networks may have long-term impacts on economic outcomes. This paper focuses on social networks formed during the American Civil War (1861–1865) among African American veterans. I find that wartime social networks (veterans from the same company) persistently affected veterans’ location choices in the post-Civil War period. By estimating discrete choice migration models, I show that veterans were more likely to move to a county where men from their military war company lived. By focusing on heterogeneous military companies and using the instrument of “weak” social networks, I rule out the competing explanation that the effect is driven by veterans having similar location preferences. The paper finds long-term benefits of living together as well. Veterans earned higher incomes after the war if they ended up living in the same county with wartime friends who had higher incomes.

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The US COVID-19 baby bust and rebound

Melissa S. KearneyPhillip B. Levine

2145-2168页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract We document the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on births in the USA. First, using Vital Statistics birth data on the universe of US births, we show that the US pandemic initially was associated with a “baby bust” period, from August 2020 through February 2021. During these 7 months, there were nearly 100,000 fewer births than predicted based on pre-existing birth trends and seasonality. Many of these missing births would have been conceived after the pandemic began in March of 2020, consistent with a behavioral fertility response to pandemic conditions. Other missing births would have been conceived before the onset of the pandemic. Some of these are attributable to reduced immigration of pregnant women and some to altered pregnancy outcomes for women who were pregnant during the early months of the pandemic. We further document a COVID birth rebound between March and September 2021, amounting to about 30,000 more births than predicted. Second, we document variation across US states in the size of the baby bust and rebound and investigate how that variation statistically relates to contextual factors. The bust was larger in states with larger increases in the unemployment rate, a larger reduction in household spending, and more COVID cases. The rebound was larger in states that experienced larger improvements in the labor market and household spending, consistent with a positive effect of economic conditions on birth rates, and smaller in places that had mask mandates, consistent with a dampening role of social anxiety about the ongoing pandemic.

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Explaining third birth patterns in India: causal effects of sibling sex composition

Shanjukta Nath

2169-2203页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract This paper analyzes the implications of son preference on birth spacing intervals in India. Sibling sex composition provides a credible source of exogenous variation in the Indian context for births on or before 1990, as sex screening became widespread only after the 1990 economic reforms. I use the sibling sex composition of the first two children to capture its impact on the third birth interval. My analysis shows that, on average, families with two sons face an 8% lower hazard of a third birth relative to families with two daughters. Moreover, I find three channels of heterogeneity: religion, mother’s age, and state of residence. Respondents from diverse religious groups respond differently to the sibling composition of the first two births regarding their likelihood of riskier births for the third interval. Moreover, older mothers with at least one son are less likely to have a shorter third birth interval than younger cohorts of mothers. Finally, the respondent’s state of residence also drives some heterogeneity, with mothers from non-southern states less likely to have a riskier third birth interval once they have had at least one son among the first two births.

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Differential fertility, school enrollment, and development

Jie ZhangHaoming Liu

2205-2240页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract This paper develops a model wherein parents choose the number of children, enroll some children in school at indivisible education costs, and receive supplemental earnings from uneducated children. The model accounts for the positive relationship between enrollment ratios and parental earnings and the N-shaped relationship between fertility and parental earnings in Brazil and Indonesia. When children’s living costs are high (low) relative to education costs and children’s earnings, fertility increases (decreases) with parental earnings due to a dominant income (substitution) effect. A decline in the ratio of child earnings to parental earnings or a rise in education subsidy rates can increase enrollment ratios and decrease fertility. Under progressive income taxes and favorable education subsidies for poor families, educated parents’ fertility could be higher than that of illiterate parents’ when incomes are low. However, the relationship will be reversed partially because of the rising education subsidy.

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Do marriage markets respond to a natural disaster? The impact of flooding of the Kosi river in India

Madhulika KhannaNishtha Kochhar

2241-2276页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract This paper studies the impact of the flooding of the Kosi river on the timing of marriage in the Indian state of Bihar, one of the world’s poorest regions. Using a difference-in-differences design, we show that the Kosi floods reduced men’s age at marriage by almost a year and women’s age at marriage by over 4 months. The Kosi floods also decreased the secondary school completion rates of married men and women and married women’s command over economic resources. We interpret these results within a framework of marriage markets, where in the absence of complete credit markets, marriage market payments (dowry) help smooth consumption in response to adverse income shocks. In support of this framework, we find that the impact of the Kosi floods is more pronounced among Hindus (for whom dowry is the traditional marriage payment norm) and among the landless (who are more credit-constrained).

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Marriage and divorce: the role of unemployment insurance

Bastian SchulzFabian Siuda

2277-2308页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract This paper examines how changes in household-level risk sharing affect the marriage market. We use as our laboratory a German unemployment insurance (UI) reform that tightened means-testing based on the partner’s income. The reduced generosity of UI increased the demand for household-level risk sharing, which lowered the attractiveness of individuals exposed to unemployment risk. Because unemployment risk correlates with non-German nationality, our main finding is that the UI reform led to a decrease in intermarriage. The 2004 expansion of the European Union had a comparable effect on intermarriage for the affected nationalities. Both reforms increased marital stability, which is consistent with better selection by couples.

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Maternity benefits and marital stability after birth: evidence from the Soviet Baltic republics

Elizabeth BrainerdOlga Malkova

2309-2345页

查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Can a policy intervention in the stressful first year after a birth affect marital stability? We examine this question using a large expansion in maternity benefits in 1982 in the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The program provided partially paid leave until the child’s first birthday and included a small cash payment at birth. We use individual-level panel data and compare the Baltics with similar East European countries using a difference-in-differences framework. Maternity benefits decrease divorce within the first year after birth. This decrease persists for at least a decade, indicating that couples avoided divorce altogether rather than simply delaying it. While mothers extended their leave by several months, they returned to full-time work afterwards, consistent with egalitarian gender norms in the labor market.

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