首页期刊导航|气候变化研究进展(英文版)
期刊信息/Journal information
气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心
气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

秦大河

季刊

1674-9278

accre@cma.gov.cn

010-68400096

100081

北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。
正式出版
收录年代

    Evaluating the thermal environment of urban land surfaces in Yakutsk,a city located in a region of continuous permafrost

    Xiang-Long LIZe ZHANGJin-Xin LUAnatoli BROUCHKOV...
    113-123页
    查看更多>>摘要：Rapid urbanization has led to changes in the urban land surface thermal environment.However,there are still much unknown about the urban land surface thermal conditions in permafrost regions.Permafrost is a unique geological environment,changes in the urban land surface thermal environment may trigger geological disasters caused by permafrost degradation.This study utilized remote sensing data and geographic de-tectors to identify the dynamic changes in land surface temperature(LST)and land use/land cover(LU/LC)in Yakutsk,as well as the potential factors contributing to LST variations.Between 1992 and 2020,the built-up area in Yakutsk increased by 36％,and the annual average LST in Yakutsk has risen by 6.67 ℃,accompanied by an expansion of high-temperature areas.Despite ongoing greening efforts,rapid urbanization poses a threat to these green spaces.Changes in the normalized difference built-up index(NDBI)and land use transfer(LDT)were identified as the primary drivers of urban LST changes.By integrating geographic detector technology and artificial neural network models,we optimized the selection of input factors in the prediction model and used it to explore the future changes in LST in Yakutsk.The average LST in Yakutsk is expected to reach 23.4 ℃ and 25.1 ℃ in 2030 and 2040,respectively,with a further increase in high-temperature areas.This study provides a reference for ecological,hydrological,and geological assessments of cities in permafrost regions.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

    Jie LIUXiang-Zhen SHILi YANGChang-Yi LIU...
    124-133页
    查看更多>>摘要：Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4％,5.7％,and 8.2％of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2％of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2％,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9％)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6％).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta,China

    Xiao-Li WANGAi-Qing FENGXi-Yong HOUQing-Chen CHAO...
    134-147页
    查看更多>>摘要：The coastal wetlands of the Yellow River Delta(YRD)in China are crucial for their valuable resources,environmental significance,and economic contributions.However,these wetlands are also vulnerable to the dual threats of climate change and human disturbances.Despite substantial attention to the historical shifts in YRD's coastal wetlands,uncertainties remain regarding their future trajectory in the face of compound risks from climate change and anthropogenic activities.Based on a range of remote sensing data sources,this study undertakes a comprehensive investigation into the evolution of YRD's coastal wetlands between 2000 and 2020.Subsequently,the potential fate of coastal wetlands is thoroughly analyzed through the Land Use/Cover Change(LUCC)simulation using System Dynamic-Future Land Use Simulation(SD-FLUS)model and the extreme water levels projection integrated future sea-level rise,storm surge,and astronomical high tide in 2030,2050,and 2100 under scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5.Results revealed that YRD's coastal wetlands underwent a marked reduction,shrinking by 1688.72 km2 from 2000 to 2020.This decline was mostly attributed to the substantial expansion in the areas of artificial wetlands(increasing by 823.78 km2),construction land(increasing by 767.71 km2),and shallow water(increasing by 274.58 km2).Looking ahead to 2030-2100,the fate of coastal wetlands appears to diverge based on different scenarios.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the area of coastal wetland is projected to experience considerable growth.In contrast,the SSP5-8.5 scenario anticipates a notable decrease in coastal wetlands.Relative to the inundated area suffered from the current extreme water levels,the study projects a decrease of 6.8％-10.6％in submerged coastal wetlands by 2030 and 9.4％-18.2％by 2050 across all scenarios.In 2100,these percentages are projected to decrease by 0.4％(SSP2-4.5)and 27.1％(SSP5-8.5),but increase by 35.7％(SSP1-2.6).Results suggest that coastal wetlands in the YRD will face a serious compound risk from climate change and intensified human activities in the future,with climate change being the dominant factor.More efficient and forward-looking measures must be implemented to prioritize the conservation and management of coastal wetland ecosystems to address the challenges,especially those posed by climate change.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Role of adaptation measures in addressing heatwave exposure in China

    Qin-Mei HANQing-Chen CHAOShao SUNPei-Jun SHI...
    148-157页
    查看更多>>摘要：Heatwave exposure has increased dramatically because of climate warming and population growth,along with their interactive effects.However,effective adaptation measures can reduce these impacts.Nonetheless,the dynamic changes,regional inequality in adaptive capacity and their potential contributions to reducing exposure in the future remain unclear.This study quantifies the impact of adaptive capacity and underscores regional variations in heatwave magnitudes,population exposure and adaptation levels in China.We projected the future adaptive capacity using air-conditioner penetration,factoring in climate cooling requirements and individuals'purchasing power.Utilising population and gross domestic product(GDP)data from four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP1,SSP2,SSP3 and SSP5)and daily temperature data from four SSP-based emission scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5),we estimated heatwave duration,population exposure and avoided impacts through adaptation across China and its sub-regions.Results show a substantial increase in heatwave duration in Southwest and Southern China,especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with a projection of 163.2±36.7 d during 2081-2100.Under the SSP3|SSP3-7.0 scenario,total exposure reaches 156.4±76.8 billion person d per year,which is the highest among all scenarios and 23 times greater than that in 1986-2005 without adaptation.Upon considering adaptation measures,a noteworthy reduction in population exposure is observed,especially in the SSP3|SSP3-7.0 and SSP5|SSP5-8.5 scenarios,with reductions of(62.6±3.9)％and(65.8±5.1)％,respectively,compared with the scenario without adaptation during 2081-2100.Remarkable regional disparities in avoided impacts are also evident,with variations of up to 50％across different regions.The implementation of effective and environmentally friendly adaptation measures can notably address climate change,thereby alleviating the profound threats posed to human well-being.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Thermal stability of permafrost under U-shaped crushed rock embankment of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway

    Kun-Ming XUGuan-Li JIANGJi CHENQing-Bai WU...
    158-169页
    查看更多>>摘要：The U-shaped crushed rock embankment(UCRE),of which widely utilized in the permafrost regions along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway,has the capability to rapidly reduce the ground temperature of the underlying permafrost.However,there remains uncertainty regarding the adaptation of UCRE to climate change and its long-term cooling trend.This study focuses on nine UCRE monitoring sites along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway to analyze the dynamic variations of the ground temperature underlying permafrost from 2006 to 2020.The efficiency of UCRE in stabilizing permafrost temperature in different permafrost zones is evaluated by considering the permafrost table,ground temperature,and MAGT,as well as the temperature difference between the top and bottom of the crushed rock layer and the ground temperature variation index(GTVI).The results show that UCRE is suitable for application in extremely unstable warm permafrost regions where the MAGT is higher than-0.5 ℃.Moreover,UCRE effectively diminishes the disparity in permafrost thermal stability between the sunny and shaded shoulders of the embankment.The short-term and long-term effect of cooling permafrost is experiencing a change related with permafrost stability.Notably,in stable cold permafrost regions with MAGT lower than-1.5 ℃,the long-term cooling effect of UCRE on permafrost seems to gradually di-minishes,but UCRE continues to fulfill the role of stabilizing the underlying permafrost thermal state over the long-term.These results show that UCRE can quickly restore and stabilize the thermal state of permafrost in the early stages of construction,and adapt to the influence of future climate change.The findings provide important guidance for understanding the variations of permafrost thermal stability beneath the embankment in permafrost regions,as well as for improving the embankment stability and operational safety of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Application of a concrete thermal pile in cooling the warming permafrost under climate change

    Yun-Hu SHANGFu-Jun NIUGuo-Yu LIJian-Hong FANG...
    170-183页
    查看更多>>摘要：Permafrost degradation caused by climate warming is posing a serious threat to the stability of cast-in-place pile foundations in warm permafrost regions.Ambient cold energy can be effectively utilized by two-phase closed thermosyphons(TPCTs)to cool the permafrost.Therefore,we installed TPCTs in a cast-in-place pile foundation to create a unique structure called a thermal pile,which effectively utilizes the TPCTs to regulate ground temperature.And we conducted a case study and numerical simulation to exhibit the cooling performance,and optimize the structure of the thermal pile.The purpose of this study is to promote the application of thermal piles in unstable permafrost regions.Based on the findings,the thermal pile operated for approximately 53％of the entire year and effectively reduced the deep ground temperature at a rate of at least-0.1 ℃ per year.Additionally,it successfully raised the permafrost table that is 0.35 m shallower than the natural ground level.These characteristics prove highly beneficial in mitigating the adverse effects of permafrost degradation and enhancing infrastructure safety.Expanding the length of the condenser section and the diameter of the TPCT in a suitable manner can effectively enhance the cooling capability of the thermal pile and ensure the long-term mechanical stability of the pile foundation even under climate warming.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据