首页期刊导航|气候变化研究进展(英文版)
期刊信息/Journal information
气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心
气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

秦大河

季刊

1674-9278

accre@cma.gov.cn

010-68400096

100081

北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。
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    Disastrous effects of climate change on High Mountain Asia

    Peng CUIYao-Ming MAYan WANGBin-Bin WANG...
    365-366页
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia:State of art and scientific challenges

    Hao WANGBin-Bin WANGPeng CUIYao-Ming MA...
    367-389页
    查看更多>>摘要：High Mountain Asia(HMA)shows a remarkable warming tendency and divergent trend of regional precipitation with enhanced meteorological extremes.The rapid thawing of the HMA cryosphere may alter the magnitude and frequency of nature hazards.We reviewed the influence of climate change on various types of nature hazards in HMA region,including their phenomena,mechanisms and impacts.It reveals that:1)the occurrences of extreme rainfall,heavy snowfall,and drifting snow hazards are escalating;accelerated ice and snow melting have advanced the onset and increased the magnitude of snowmelt floods;2)due to elevating trigger factors,such as glacier debuttressing and the rapid shift of thermal and hydrological regime of bedrock/snow/ice interface or subsurface,the mass flow hazards including bedrock landslide,snow avalanche,ice-rock avalanches or glacier detachment,and debris flow will become more severe;3)increased active-layer detachment and retrogressive thaw slumps slope failures,thaw settlement and thermokarst lake will damage many important engineering structures and infrastructure in permafrost region;4)multi-hazards cascading hazard in HMA,such as the glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF)and avalanche-induced mass flow may greatly enlarge the destructive power of the primary hazard by amplifying its volume,mobility,and impact force;and 5)enhanced slope instability and sediment supply in the highland areas could impose remote catastrophic impacts upon lowland regions,and threat hydropower security and future water shortage.In future,ongoing thawing of HMA will profoundly weaken the multiple-phase material of bedrock,ice,water,and soil,and enhance activities of nature hazards.Compounding and cascading hazards of high magnitude will prevail in HMA.As the glacier runoff overpasses the peak water,low flow or droughts in lowland areas downstream of glacierized mountain regions will became more frequent and severe.Addressing escalating hazards in the HMA region requires tackling scientific challenges,including understanding multiscale evolution and for-mation mechanism of HMA hazard-prone systems,coupling thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in multi-phase flows,predicting catastrophes arising from extreme weather and climate events,and comprehending how highland hazards propagate to lowlands due to climate change.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Extreme precipitation detection ability of four high-resolution precipitation product datasets in hilly area:a case study in Nepal

    Sunil SUBBAYao-Ming MAWei-Qiang MACun-Bo HAN...
    390-405页
    查看更多>>摘要：Given Nepal's vulnerability to extreme precipitation(EP),it is imperative to conduct a comprehensive analysis to comprehend the historical trends of such events.However,acquiring precise precipitation data for EP remains challenging in mountainous countries like Nepal owing to the scarcity of densely gauged networks.This limitation impedes the dissemination of knowledge pertaining to EP variability events in Nepal.The current research on this topic is deficient for two main reasons:1)there is a lack of studies leveraging recently released high-resolution precipitation products to identify their EP detection capabilities,which further hinders the usability of those products in data-scarce regions like Nepal,and 2)most studies have focused on the characterisation of EP events in Nepal rather than their spatial and temporal variability.To address these issues,this study evaluated the EP detection capabilities of four high-resolution precipitation product datasets(PPDs)across Nepal from 1985 to 2020.These datasets include the ERA5 Land reanalysis data,satellite-based precipitation data(PERSIANN_CCS_CDR and CHIRPS_V2.0)and a merged dataset(TPHiPr).We used various statistical and categorical indices to assess their ability to capture the spatial and temporal variability of EP events.The annual EP events were characterised by 11 indices divided into frequency and intensity categories.The TPHiPr merged dataset offered a robust depiction of monthly precipitation estimates,achieving the highest critical success index,accuracy,probability of detection and a low false alarm ratio for daily precipitation detection of 0.1 mm in Nepal.Conversely,the PERSIANN_CCS_CDR dataset exhibited poor performance.Most PPDs showed increasing trends in EP indices.However,the TPHiPr dataset showcased those trends with fewer errors and stronger correlations for many frequency(R10mm,R20mm and R25mm)and intensity(RX1day,RX5day,PRCPTOT and R99p)indices.The results indicate that TPHiPr outperformed other PPDs in accurately representing the spatial distribution of EP trends in Nepal from 1985 to 2020,particularly noting an exacerbation of EP events mostly in the eastern region of Nepal throughout the study period.While TPHiPr demonstrated superior performance in detecting various EP indices across Nepal,individual products like the ERA5 Land reanalysis dataset showed enhanced performance in the western region of Nepal.Conversely,PERSIANN_CCS_CDR and CHIRPS_V2.0 performed well in the eastern region compared to other PPDs.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Using Copula functions to predict climatic change impacts on floods in river source regions

    Ting-Xing CHENHai-Shen LYURobert HORTONYong-Hua ZHU...
    406-418页
    查看更多>>摘要：Flood frequency in river source regions is significantly affected by rainfall and snowmelt as part of climatic changes.A traditional univariate flood frequency analysis cannot reflect the complexity of floods,and when used in isolation,it can only underestimate flood risk.For effective flood prevention and mitigation,it is essential to consider the combined effects of precipitation and snowmelt.Copula functions can effectively quantify the joint distribution relationship between floods and their associated variables without restrictions on their distribution characteristics.This study uses copula functions to consider a multivariate probability distribution model of flood peak flow(Q)with cumulative snowmelt(CSm)and cumulative precipitation(CPr)for the Hutubi River basin located in northern Xinjiang,China.The joint frequencies of rainfall and snowmelt floods are predicted using copula models based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data.The results show that Q has a significant positive correlation with 24-d CSm(r=0.559,p=0.002)and 23-d CPr(r=0.965,p＜0.05).Flood frequency will increase in the future,and mid-(2050-2074)and long-term(2075-2099)floods will be more severe than those in the near-term(2025-2049).The probability of flood occurrence is higher under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios than under SSP5-8.5.Precipitation during the historical period(1990-2014)led to extreme floods,and increasing future precipitation trends are found to be insignificant.Snowmelt increases with rising temperatures and occurs earlier than estimated,leading to an earlier flood period in the basin and more frequent snowmelt floods.The Q under the joint return period is larger than that during the same univariate return period.This difference indicates that neglecting the interaction between precipitation and snowmelt for floods leads to an underestimation of the flood risk(with underestimations ranging from 0.3％to 22％).The underestimations decrease with an increase in the return period.The joint risks of rainfall or snowmelt according to various flood periods should be considered for rivers with multi-source runoff recharge in flood control design.This study reveals the joint impact of precipitation and snowmelt on extreme floods under climate change in river source regions.This study also provides a scientific basis for regional flood prevention and mitigation strategies,as well as for the rational allocation of water resources.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Antecedent snowmelt and orographic precipitation contributions to water supply of Pakistan disastrous floods,2022

    Yan WANGPeng CUIChen-Di ZHANGGuo-Tao ZHANG...
    419-430页
    查看更多>>摘要：In 2022,the Pakistan witnessed the hottest spring and wettest summer in history.And devastating floods inundated a large portion of Pakistan and caused enormous damages.However,the primary water source and its contributions to these unprecedented floods remain unclear.Based on the reservoir inflow measurements,Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation(MSWEP),the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis(ERA5)products,this study quantified the contributions of monsoon precipitation,antecedent snow-melts,and orographic precipitation enhancement to floods in Pakistan.We found that the Indus experienced at least four inflow up-rushes,which was mainly supplied by precipitation and snowmelt;In upper Indus,abnormally high temperature continued to influence the whole summer and lead to large amounts of snowmelts which not only was a key water supply to the flood but also provided favorable soil moisture conditions for the latter precipitation.Before July,the snowmelt has higher contributions than the precipitation to the streamflow of Indus River,with contribution value of more than 60％.Moreover,the snowmelt could still supply 20％-40％water to the lower Indus in July and August;The leading driver of 2022 mega-floods over the southern Pakistan in July and August was dominated by the precipitation,where terrain disturbance induced precipitation account to approximately 33％over the southern Pakistan.The results help to understand the mechanisms of flood formation,and to better predict future flood risks over complex terrain regions.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Increased glacier melt enhances future extreme floods in the southern Tibetan Plateau

    He SUNTan-Dong YAOFeng-Ge SUTinghai OU...
    431-441页
    查看更多>>摘要：Mountainous areas are of special hydrological concern because topography and atmospheric conditions can result in large and sudden floods,posing serious risks to water-related safety in neighbouring countries.The Yarlung Zangbo(YZ)River basin is the largest river basin on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but how floods will discharge in this basin and how the role of glacier melt in floods will change throughout the 21st-century under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)remain unclear.Here,we comprehensively address this scientific question based on a well-validated large-scale glacier-hydrology model.The results indicate that extreme floods was projected to increase in the YZ basin,and was mainly reflected in increased duration(4-10 d per decade)and intensity(153-985 m3 s-1 per decade).Glacier runoff was projected to increase(2-30 mm per decade)throughout the 21st-century,but there was also a noticeable decrease or deceleration in glacier runoff growth in the late first half of the century under the SSP2-4.5,and in the latter half of the century under the SSP5-8.5.Glacier melt was projected to enhance the duration(12％-23％)and intensity(15％-21％)of extreme floods under both SSPs,which would aggravate the impact of future floods on the socioeconomics of the YZ basin.This effect was gradually overwhelmed by precipitation-induced floods from glacier areas to YZ outlet.This study takes the YZ basin as a projection framework example to help enrich the understanding of future flood hazards in basins affected by rainfall-or meltwater across the TP,and to help policy-makers and water managers develop future plans.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Snowpack variations and their hazardous effects under climate warming in the central Tianshan Mountains

    Jian-Sheng HAOYan WANGLan-Hai LI
    442-451页
    查看更多>>摘要：Climate change alters snowpack evolution,which in turn influences the likelihood of snow avalanches and flood risks.The lack of systemic observational data on key snow characteristics in high mountains remains a scientific challenge in terms of systematically elucidating the dynamic chain of variations in climate-snowpack-snow disasters.This restricts our understanding and poses challenges in the prediction of snow-related disaster risks.As such,this study analysed the variations of temperature and snowfall and the physical characteristics of snowpacks based on ground-based observations from the Kunse River Valley situated in the Tianshan Mountains from 1967 to 2021.The results reveal that the temperature increased significantly by 0.32 ℃ per decade(p＜0.01)during the snow season,along with more extreme snowfall events.The snow-cover duration was observed to have been shortened by 4.77 d per decade(p＜0.01)from 1967 to 2021,which is characterised by later snow-cover onset and earlier snowmelt.Concurrently,average and maximum snow depths increased along with an increase in peak snow water equivalent,thus indicating a higher frequency of extremely scarce or abundant snow years.The low snowpack temperature gradient and earlier snowmelt dates in spring lead to earlier occurrences of snowmelt floods and wet avalanches.As the risks of these events increase,they pose greater threats to farmlands,road transportation,water-electricity infrastructure and several other human activities.Therefore,these insights are critical for providing vital information that can deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on snowpack characteristics and improve management strategies for snow-related disaster prevention and mitigation.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Intensified warming suppressed the snowmelt in the Tibetan Plateau

    Xiang LIPeng CUIXue-Qin ZHANGFang ZHANG...
    452-463页
    查看更多>>摘要：Understanding how hydrological factors interrelate is crucial when examining the impact of climate warming on snowmelt.However,these connections are often overlooked,leading to an unclear relationship between temperature and snowmelt.This study investigates the complex interplay between temperature and snowmelt in the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2020,focusing on how extreme high-temperature events affect the frequency of extreme snowmelt.Using a structural equation model,we detected three temperature-related factors that predominantly influenced snowmelt and extreme snowmelt.The annual average temperature was found to have a significant indirect impact on snowmelt,mediated by changes in snowfall,snow depth and snow cover.By contrast,high-temperature days(daily maximum temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile)and heat waves(at least three consecutive high-temperature days)negatively affected extreme snowmelt directly or indirectly.The direct effect of increasing extreme temperature events was associated with an earlier onset of high-temperature periods,which accelerated snowmelt and shortened the duration of extreme snowmelt periods.Additionally,the reduction in snow cover owing to warming emerged as a main factor suppressing snowmelt and extreme snowmelt frequencies.We also revealed spatiotemporal variations in the temperature-snowmelt relationship that highly depended on changes in snowmelt patterns.The study elucidated why warming suppresses snowmelt and extreme snowmelt events in the Tibetan Plateau,highlighting the mediating roles of snow-related and phenological factors.The findings will provide scientific support for climate simulation and water management policymaking in alpine regions worldwide.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Frequency and size change of ice-snow avalanches in the central Himalaya:A case from the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier

    Yao LIYi-Fei CUIJian-Sheng HAOZheng-Tao ZHANG...
    464-475页
    查看更多>>摘要：Glaciers have retreated and shrunk in High Mountain Asia since the mid-20th century because of global warming,leading to glacier instability and hazardous ice-snow avalanches.However,the complex relationship between ice-snow avalanches and factors such as climate and potential triggers are difficult to understand because of the lack of observational data.Here,we addressed ice-snow avalanches on the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier in Nepal,Central Himalaya.We constructed an ice-snow avalanche history using long-term multi-source remote sensing images(1988-2021)and mapped the velocity fields of glaciers using cross-correlation analysis on SAR and optical images.Then,we investigated the impact of climate change and earthquakes on the frequency and size of ice-snow avalanches.The results demonstrate that the frequency of ice-snow avalanches has increased from 10 in 1988 to 27 in 2020,but the average area of ice-snow avalanche deposits has decreased by approximately 70％,from 3.4 x 105 m2 in 1988 to 1.2 x 105 m2 in 2020.The evolutionary characteristic of ice avalanches is linked to the impact of glacier retreat(reduction in ice material supply)and increased activity under climate change.The glacier movement velocity controls the size of ice-snow avalanches and can be set as an indicator for ice-snow avalanche warnings.On the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier,an ice-snow avalanche occurred when the glacier velocities were greater than 1.5 m d-1.These results offer insights into ice-snow avalanche risk assessment and prediction in high-mountain areas,particularly in regions characterised by dense glacier distribution.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Enhanced detection of freeze-thaw induced landslides in Zhidoi county(Tibetan Plateau,China)with Google Earth Engine and image fusion

    Jia-Hui YANGYan-Chen GAOLang JIAWen-Juan WANG...
    476-489页
    查看更多>>摘要：Freeze-thaw induced landslides(FTILs)in grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau are a geological disaster leading to soil erosion.These landslides reduce biodiversity and intensify landscape fragmentation,which in turn are strengthen by the persistent climate change and increased anthropogenic activities.However,conventional techniques for mapping FTILs on a regional scale are impractical due to their labor-intensive,costly,and time-consuming nature.This study focuses on improving FTILs detection by implementing image fusion-based Google Earth Engine(GEE)and a random forest algorithm.Integration of multiple data sources,including texture features,index features,spectral features,slope,and vertical-vertical polarization data,allow automatic detection of the spatial distribution characteristics of FTILs in Zhidoi county,which is located within the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor(QTEC).We employed statistical techniques to elucidate the mechanisms influencing FTILs occurrence.The enhanced method identifies two schemes that achieve high accuracy using a smaller training sample(scheme A:94.1％;scheme D:94.5％)compared to other methods(scheme B:50.0％;scheme C:95.8％).This methodology is effective in generating accurate results using only-10％of the training sample size necessitated by other methods.The spatial distribution patterns of FTILs generated for 2021 are similar to those obtained using various other training sample sources,with a primary concentration observed along the central region traversed by the QTEC.The results highlight the slope as the most crucial feature in the fusion images,accounting for 93％of FTILs occurring on gentle slopes ranging from 0° to 14°.This study provides a theoretical framework and technological reference for the identification,monitoring,prevention and control of FTILs in grasslands.Such developments hold the potential to benefit the management of grassland ecosystem,reduce economic losses,and promote grassland sustainability.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据