首页期刊导航|气候变化研究进展(英文版)
期刊信息/Journal information
气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心
气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

秦大河

季刊

1674-9278

accre@cma.gov.cn

010-68400096

100081

北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。
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    Defining region-specific heatwave in China based on a novel concept of "avoidable mortality for each temperature unit decrease"

    LIU Jiang-MeiAI Si-QiQI Jin-LeiWANG Li-Jun...
    611-618页
    查看更多>>摘要：The distribution of temperature and temperature-health association varied largely across different regions in China,a region-specific defi-nition for heatwave was therefore needed.We collected the data on daily mortality,meteorological factors and air pollution in 84 Chinese cities during 2013-2016,which was divided into seven regions.Based on the association between daily maximum temperature and mortality in each city in a threshold distributed lag non-linear model,where the threshold was defined as the temperature corresponding to the lowest mortality risk,we calculated the number of deaths that could be avoided for 1℃decrease in maximum temperature under different thresholds,then a random-effect meta-analysis was used to generate regional results,in which the temperature with the highest avoidable mortality number for 1℃decrease was considered as the most appropriate heatwave definition.We observed an immediate detrimental effect of high temperature within three lag days.Our analysis suggested to use 29.5℃,31.5℃,29.0℃,31.5℃,30.0℃,and 28.5℃as the heatwave standard for east,north,northeast,central,south,and southwest region,with the avoidable mortality number of 1.54(95％Confidence interval(CI):0.88,2.19),0.55(95％CI:0.16,0.94),0.59(95％CI:0.32,0.86),1.14(95％CI:0.68,1.59),1.22(95％CI:0.54,1.90),and 0.78(95％CI:0.01,1.55),respectively,while the estimated number 0.19(95％CI:—0.02,0.40)in northwest region was not statistically significant.The concept of'avoidable mortality for 1℃decrease'was proposed to define the heatwave event,and varied maximum temperature between 28.5 and 31.5℃was suggested for region-specific heatwave definition in China.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Association of heat exposure and emergency ambulance calls:A multi-city study

    LI Yong-HongYE Dian-XiuLIU YueLI Na...
    619-627页
    查看更多>>摘要：Evidence of the impact of ambient temperatures on emergency ambulance calls(EACs)in developing countries contributes to the improvement and complete understanding of the acute health effects of temperatures.This study aimed to examine the impacts and burden of heat on EACs in China,quantify the contributions of regional modifiers,and identify the vulnerable populations.A semi-parametric generalized additive model with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the city-specific impacts of the daily maximum temperature(Tmax)on EACs in June-August in 2014-2017.Stratified analyses by sex and age were performed to identify the vulnerable sub-populations.Meta-analysis was undertaken to illustrate the pooled associations.Further subgroup analysis,stratified by climate,latitude,and per capita disposable income(PCDI),and meta-regression analysis were conducted to explore the regional heterogeneity and quantify the contributions of possible modifiers.The city-and region-specific attributable fractions of EACs attributable to heat were calculated.Strong associations were observed between the daily Tmax and total EACs in all cities.A total of 11.7％(95％confidence interval(CI):11.2％—12.3％)of EACs were attributed to high temperatures in ten Chinese cities,and the central region with a low level of PCDI had the highest attributable fraction of 17.8％(95％CI:17.2％—18.4％).People living in the central region with lower PCDI,and those aged 18-44 and 0-6 years were more vulnerable to heat than the others.The combined effects of PCDI,temperature,and latitude contributed 88.6％of the regional heterogeneity.The results complemented the understanding of the burden of EACs attributable to heat in developing countries and the quantitative contribution of regional modifiers.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    The half-degree matters for heat-related health impacts under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming scenarios:Evidence from ambulance data in Shenzhen,China

    HE Yi-LingDENG Shi-ZhouHO Hung ChakWANG Hui-Bin...
    628-637页
    查看更多>>摘要：The Paris Agreement has prompted much interest in the societal and health impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5℃and 2℃.Previous assessments of differential impacts of two targets indicate that 1.5℃warming target would substantially reduce the impact on human health compared to 2℃,but they mainly focused on the magnitude of temperature changes under future climate change scenarios without any consideration of greater frequency of cumulative heat exposures within a day.Here we quantified the health risks of compound daytime and nighttime hot extremes using morbidity data in a megacity of China,and also identified the time-period of heat exposure with higher risks.Then we projected future morbidity burden attributable to compound hot extremes due to the half-degree warming.We estimated that the 2℃warming scenario by 2100 as opposed to 1.5℃would increase annual heat-related ambulance dispatches by 31％in Shenzhen city.Substantial additional impacts were associated with occurrence of consecutive hot days and nights,with ambulance dispatches increased by 82％.Our results suggested that compound hot extremes should be considered in assessment of heat-related health impacts,particularly in the context of climate change.Minimizing the warming of climate in a more ambitious target can significantly reduce the health damage.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Hospital healthcare costs attributable to heat and future estimations in the context of climate change in Perth,Western Australia

    Michael Xiaoliang TONGBerhanu Yazew WONDMAGEGNSusan WILLIAMSAlana HANSEN...
    638-648页
    查看更多>>摘要：Climate change with increasing temperature is making a significant impact on human health,including more heat-related diseases,and increasing the burden on the healthcare system.Although many studies have explored the association between increasing temperatures and negative health outcomes,research on the associated costs of heat-related diseases remains relatively sparse.Furthermore,estimations of future costs associated with heat-attributable hospital healthcare have not been well explored.This study used a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate heat-attributable hospital healthcare costs in Perth,Western Australia.Using 2006-2012 as the baseline,future costings for 2026-2032 and 2046-2052 were estimated under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5.Higher temperatures were found to be associated with increased hospital healthcare costs.The total hospital costs attributable to heat over the baseline period 2006-2012 was estimated to be 79.5 million AUD,with costs for mental health hospitalizations being the largest contributor of the heat-related conditions examined.Costs are estimated to increase substantially to 125.8-129.1 million AUD in 2026-2032,and 174.1-190.3 million AUD by midcentury under climate change scenarios.Our findings of a notable burden of heat-attributable healthcare costs now and in the future emphasize the importance of climate change adaptation measures to reduce the adverse health effects of increasing temperatures and heat exposure on the people of Perth.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Establishment and validation of health vulnerability and adaptation indices under extreme weather events on the basis of the 2016 flood in Anhui province,China

    ZHONG ShuangCHENG QiuHUANG Cun-RuiWANG Zhe...
    649-659页
    查看更多>>摘要：Climate change could intensify extreme weather events,such as flooding,which amplifies the public health threat of waterborne diseases.Thus,assessing health vulnerability and adaptation(V&A)could facilitate nationally effective responses to extreme climate events.However,related studies are still negligible,and the assessment urgently needs to be validated with actual health data after extreme weather events.We established health V&A indices through literature review and factor analyses.Then,we separately mapped the spatial distribution of flood exposure,social and public health sensitivity,and adaptive capacity before the 2016 flood in Anhui province and compared it with post-flood diarrhea risks by using the geographic information system method to assess health vulnerability.Finally,we validated the indices by exploring the relationship between health V&A indices and post-flood diarrhea risks by using the quantile regression model.Results revealed that health V&A can be framed and categorized as key components of exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity.The remarkable differences in the spatial distribution of health vulnerability were generally consistent with the demographic sensitivity,geographic flooding exposure,and post-flood diarrhea risks in Anhui.In addition,health V&A indices exerted significant positive impacts on infectious diarrhea post-flooding at all quan-tiles and were significant across different percentiles.Moreover,the impacts of flood exposure on total infectious diarrhea were high and continuous,whereas the impacts of sensitivity were not obvious in the flood's early stage(Coeff=0.643;p＜0.001)but high in the flood's middle(Coeff=0.997;p＜0.001)and late stages(Coeff=0.975;p＜0.001).However,the impacts of adaptive capacity were heterogeneous and high in the flood's early stage(Coeff=0.665;p＜0.001 at the 25th percentile)and late stage(Coeff=1.296;p＜0.001 at the 75th percentile)but were insignificant at the 50th percentile.This study contributed validated three-layered health V&A indices with 30 indicators and identified that the impacts of the key components on post-flood waterborne-disease risks are heterogeneous.For instance,local public health sensitivity and adaptive capacity are insufficient to reduce these risks in the long run.This study could be used to project population health risks after extreme weather events and thereby contributes to local government planning of health adaptation.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Assessment of the capability of CMIP6 global climate models to simulate Arctic cyclones

    SONG Jia-NingFU GangXU YingHAN Zhen-Yu...
    660-676页
    查看更多>>摘要：Arctic cyclones are one of the important synoptic-scale systems that affect weather variability over the Arctic and can cause intense weather phenomena and disasters.Thus,research on the assessment of the climate characteristics,activity laws,and variability trends of Arctic cyclones using climate models has practical significance.On the basis of the fifth-generation European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis(ERA5)data,the spatiotemporal variations of Arctic cyclones during 1981-2014 are analyzed by detecting and tracking cyclones using the Lagrangian method.Then,the simulation results of 14 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP5)are compared with the results of ERA5.Both the individual models and their ensemble mean can simulate the spatial distribution of the density of cyclone tracks with reasonable capability,the correlation coefficients of track density are approximately 0.6.Furthermore,in boreal winter,the Atlantic zonal negative bias of track density is stronger than that in summer.By contrast,in boreal summer,the negative bias over the Arctic Ocean region is stronger than that in winter.Moreover,the simulations of density-field-related variables(i.e.,cyclolysis,cyclogenesis,track,and lowest center pressure densities)of Arctic cyclones are generally better in winter than in summer,and the models can simulate well that the number of external Arctic cyclones entering the Arctic region from the midlatitudes is more than the internal Arctic cyclones generated inside the Arctic region(60°—90°N).Furthermore,we show that the capability of models to capture Arctic cyclones with a short lifespan(＜3 d)is somewhat poor.Except for the simulation of the minimum pressure of Arctic cyclones,the performance of high-resolution models is better than that of low-resolution models.The simulation of Arctic cyclone radius is poor among all of the variables related to Arctic cyclones,and the observed trends of intensities are not well simulated.In general,the simulation of location-field-related variables(i.e.,intensity,radius,deepening rate,and center pressure)of Arctic cyclones is better in winter than in summer.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Chinese lockdown as aerosol reduction experiment

    Hans VON STORCHBeate GEYERLI YanVolker MATTHIAS...
    677-685页
    查看更多>>摘要：The lockdown of large parts of Chinese economy beginning in late January 2020 lead to significant regional changes of aerosol loads,which suggests a reduction of backscatter and consequently a regional warming in the following months.Using local data and a numerical experiment with a limited area model,we have examined how strong this response may have been.The observed(local and reanalysis)observations point to a warming of less than 1.0 K,the simulations to a warming of the order of 0.5 K.These numbers are uncertain,because of large-scale natural variability and an ad-hoc choice of aerosol optical depth anomaly in the simulation.Thus,the result was,in short,that there was actually a weak warming of a few tenth of degrees,while noteworthy changes in circulation or in precipitation were not detected.More specifically,we found that at selected central China stations temperatures were found to be higher than in previous two years.This warming goes with a marked diurnal signal,with a maximum warming in the early afternoon(06 UTC),weakest at night(18 UTC).This may be related to a general warming of large swaths of Asia(including Siberia,which is not related to local aerosol forcing).Indeed,also the stations outside the immediate strong lockdown region are showing warming,albeit a weaker one.Thus,the difference 2020 minus 2019/2018 may overestimate the effect.The ad-hoc series of numerical experiments indicates that the simulated changes are robust and suffer little from internal dynamical variability.In particular,the overall reduction of the aerosol optical depth does not lead to phases of larger intermittent divergence among the model simulations,irrespective of the aerosol load.Instead,the simulations with reduced anthropogenic aerosol load show more a mere locally increased temperature.This may indicate that the aerosol effect is mostly thermodynamic in all local air columns in the region.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Interannual variability and climatic sensitivity of global wildfire activity

    Rongyun TANGJiafu MAOMingzhou JINAnping CHEN...
    686-695页
    查看更多>>摘要：Understanding historical wildfire variations and their environmental driving mechanisms is key to predicting and mitigating wildfires.However,current knowledge of climatic responses and regional contributions to the interannual variability(IAV)of global burned area remains limited.Using recent satellite-derived wildfire products and simulations from version v1.O of the land component of the U.S.Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model(E3SM land model[ELM]v1)driven by three different climate forcings,we investigated the burned area IAV and its climatic sensitivity globally and across nine biomes from 1997 to 2018.We found that 1)the ELM simulations generally agreed with the satellite observations in terms of the burned area IAV magnitudes,regional contributions,and covariations with climate factors,confirming the robustness of the ELM to the usage of different climate forcing sources;2)tropical savannas,tropical forests,and semi-arid grasslands near deserts were primary contributors to the global burned area IAV,collectively accounting for 71.7％—99.7％of the global wildfire IAV estimated by both the satellite observations and ELM simulations;3)precipitation was a major fire suppressing factor and dominated the global and regional burned area IAVs,and temperature and shortwave solar radiation were mostly positively related with burned area IAVs;and 4)noticeable local discrepancies between the ELM and remote-sensing results occurred in semi-arid grasslands,croplands,boreal forests,and wetlands,likely caused by uncertainties in the current ELM fire scheme and the imperfectly derived satellite observations.Our findings revealed the spatiotemporal diversity of wildfire variations,regional contributions and climatic responses,and provided new metrics for wildfire modeling,facilitating the wildfire prediction and management.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Permafrost changes in the Nanwenghe Wetlands Reserve on the southern slope of the Da Xing'anling-Yile'huli mountains,Northeast China

    HE Rui-XiaJIN Hui-JunLUO Dong-LiangLI Xiao-Ying...
    696-709页
    查看更多>>摘要：The Nanwenghe Wetlands Reserve in the Yile'huli Mountains is a representative region of the Xing'an permafrost.The response of permafrost to climate change remains unclear due to limited field investigations.Thus,longer-term responses of the ground thermal state to climate change since 2011 have been monitored at four sites with varied surface characteristics:Carex tato wetland(P1)and shrub-C.tato wetland(P2)with a multi-year average temperatures at the depth of zero annual amplitude(TZAA)of-0.52 and-1.19℃,respectively;Betula platyphylla-Larix gmelinii(Rupr.)Kuzen mixed forest(P3)with TZAA of 0.17℃,and;the forest of L.gmelinii(Rupr.)Kuzen(P4)with TZAA of 1.65℃.Continuous observations demonstrate that the ecosystem-protected Xing'an permafrost experienced a cooling under a warming climate.The temperature at the top of permafrost(TTOP)rose(1.8℃per decade)but the TZAA declined(-0.14℃per decade),while the active layer thickness(ALT)thinned from 0.9 m in 2012 to 0.8 m in 2014 at P1.Both the TTOP and TZAA increased(0.89 and 0.06℃per decade,respectively),but the ALT thinned from 1.4 m in 2012 to 0.7 m in 2016 at P2.Vertically detached permafrost at P3 disappeared in summer 2012,with warming rates of+0.42 and+0.17℃per decade for TTOP and TZAA,respectively.However,up to date,the ground thermal state has remained stable at P4.We conclude that the thermal offset is crucial for the preservation and persistence of the Xing'an permafrost at the southern fringe.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    An integrated approach to evaluating the coupling coordination degree between low-carbon development and air quality in Chinese cities

    LIU Tian-LeSONG Qi-JiaoJiaqi LUQI Ye...
    710-722页
    查看更多>>摘要：Collaborative governance between ecological environment and climate change is a novel signature in China's policy agenda.However,such coordination remains understudied,especially at the local level.Using the principal component analysis,entropy evaluation methods,and the Coupling Coordination Degree Model(CCDM),we evaluated the level of coordination between carbon and air quality mitigation from 34 low-carbon pilot cities in China.We also illustrated the mechanism and policy formation that leads to different coupling patterns at the local level using three case studies.We found that most pilot cities perform a medium level of coupling coordination between low carbon development and air quality.The result reveals that most low-carbon pilot cities score relatively well in low-carbon development.Further,there is a significant cleavage in air quality between cities in the North and those in the South,indicating pilot cities in the South coordinate better than those in the North.In particular,pilot programs in the Southwest and Southeast coastal region perform well in collaborative governance,while the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei region is rated poorly because of the gap between air quality and low carbon development.Also,we found that the same low-carbon policy might have heterogeneous effects on different air pollutants and across different regions.The local government should adopt low-carbon development policies that address local level specific environmental and economic conditions to maximize their air pollution mitigation benefits.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普