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期刊信息/Journal information
气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心
气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

秦大河

季刊

1674-9278

accre@cma.gov.cn

010-68400096

100081

北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。
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    Impact of tropical Atlantic warming on the Pacific Walker circulation with numerical experiments of CGCM

    REN Si-MinZHANG Shao-QingLU LüJIANG Ying-Jing...
    757-771页
    查看更多>>摘要：The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) was weak in the20th century,but its strength increased in an interdecadal scale in the late 1990s.Previous studies have suggested that it could be caused by the warming of the tropical Atlantic Ocean,or induced by the warming of the tropical Indian Ocean.The tropical Atlantic Ocean would not only directly affect the PWC through the equatorial east Pacific to the west,but also produce an indirect effect to the east through the equatorial west Indian Ocean.Using a coupled general circulation model,we designed a series of tropical Atlantic Heating and Heating_Shut experiments with different heating rates,to detect the mechanism of the impact of tropical Atlantic warming on the PWC.Results show that the tropical Atlantic heating weakens the Atlantic Walker circulation but strengthens the PWC.Diagnostics of multiple physical variables with coherent lower-upper troposphere structure show the responses of the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic heating play a critical role in the strengthening of the PWC.The Atlantic-linked atmosphere over the tropical Indian Ocean exerts a significantly positive heat flux onto the ocean there,greatly warming the tropical Indian Ocean,especially on the west part.This produces strong convectively ascending at the equatorial West Indian Ocean,but descending at the East-central Indian Ocean,corresponding to a 'Walker'circulation and an 'anti-Walker'circulation situated at the West and East equatorial Indian Ocean respectively.Meanwhile,the convergence(divergence) of the lower (upper) troposphere over the Indo-Pacific region is also strengthened.In this way,the tropical Atlantic heating is linked to the PWC through the circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean.This study serves as a preliminary step to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic warming on the PWC,more Atlantic heating sensitivity studies with multi-model experiments are required to further reveal the linkage of the Pacific and Atlantic.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Decadal changes of the intraseasonal oscillation during 1979-2016

    WU NanLI YingLI JuanFENG Li-Cheng...
    772-782页
    查看更多>>摘要：The Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) is the cornerstone for 2-8-week subseasonal prediction.Understanding the decadal variation of the ISO is important for improving subseasonal prediction;however,there is still a gap in our knowledge of ISO dynamics.Here,we presented a method,an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of 11-year-sliding ISO evolution,to objectively detect decadal variation of the ISO originated from the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) during 1979-2016.The results show that the properties of ISO have a notable decadal change since 1998 for both boreal summer and boreal winter seasons,mainly in its evolution rather than in its intensity at origin.During the pre-1998 epoch,the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO),was confined to the Indian Ocean;since 1998,however,it propagated northeastward across the Maritime Continent (MC) and the intraseasonal variability over the western North Pacific was significant enhanced.On the other hand,the boreal-winter ISO,usually known as Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) shows minor changes in MC 'barrier effect'between the two epochs,and continuously propagates eastward across the MC.The MJO only shows suppressed activity over the central equatorial Pacific in the post-1998 epoch.These decadal changes are related to the eastern Pacific cooling during the 'global warming hiatus' period rather than to the four-decade global warming.Results here provide a set of potential precursors for foreseeing ISO propagation under different mean states.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Comprehensive evaluation of surface air temperature reanalysis over China against urbanization-bias-adjusted observations

    ZHANG Si-QiREN Guo-YuREN Yu-YuZHANG Ying-Xian...
    783-794页
    查看更多>>摘要：The reanalysis datasets (CRA40) have now been developed in China Meteorological Administration.We aim to compare the differences in surface air temperature (SAT) between observational that has been adjusted for urbanization bias and reanalysis data (NCEPV1,NCEPV2,ERA5,CFSR,MERRA,JRA55,20CRV3 and CRA40) over mainland China during 1961-2015.The main results are presented as follows.The correlation and standard deviation between the reanalysis data and observations exhibit highly consistent interannual variability and dispersion,with the interannual SAT variability in JRA55 being closest to the observations for 1961-2015 and that of ERA5 for 1979-2015;the dis-persions of 20CRV3 is most consistent with the observations for 1961-2015 and that of NCEPV1 for 1979-2015.Although annual mean SAT of the reanalysis is generally 0-2.0 ℃ lower than the observations,the bias in the SAT climatology of 20CRV3 is the least for 1961-2015 in all reanalysis datasets and that of CRA40 is the least for 1979-2015.The trends of NCEPV1 is closer to the observations than other reanalysis for 1961-2015 and that of 20CRV3 for 1979-2015.The biases in terms of interannual variability,dispersion,climatology,and linear trend are increase with altitude.Overall,in terms of the similarity of multiple measures to the urbanization bias-adjusted observations,JRA55 and CRA40 show the best performances for the periods 1961-2015 and 1979-2015 respectively in reproducing various aspects of climatological and climate change features in mainland China.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    An extreme rainfall event in summer 2018 of Hami city in eastern Xinjiang,China

    ZOU ShanDUAN Wei-LiNikolaos CHRISTIDISDaniel NOVER...
    795-803页
    查看更多>>摘要：Extreme rainfall events are rare in inland arid regions,but have exhibited an increasing trend in recent years,causing many casualties and substantial socioeconomic losses.A series of heavy rains that began on July 31st,2018,battered the Hami prefecture of eastern Xinjiang,China for four days.These rains sparked devastating floods,caused 20 deaths,eight missing,and the evacuation of about 5500 people.This study examines the extreme rainfall event in a historical context and explores the anthropogenic causes based on analysis of multiple datasets (i.e.,the observed daily data,the global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5),the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1,and the satellite cloud data) and several statistical techniques.Results show that this extraordinarily heavy rainfall was due mainly to the abnormal weather system (e.g.,the abnormal subtropical high) that transported abundant water vapor from the Indian Ocean and the East China Sea crossed the high mountains and formed extreme rainfall in Hami prefecture,causing the reservoir to break and form a flood event with treat loss,which is a typical example of a comprehensive analysis of the extreme rainfall event in summer in Northwest China.Also,the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) value was 1.00 when the 2018 July-August RX1day (11.52 mm) was marked as the threshold,supporting the claim of a significant anthropogenic influence on the risk of this extreme rainfall.The results offer insights into the variability of precipitation extremes in arid areas contributing to better manage water-related disasters.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Projected increases in population exposure of daily climate extremes in eastern China by 2050

    SUN ShaoDAI Tan-LongWANG Zun-YaCHOU Jie-Ming...
    804-813页
    查看更多>>摘要：Climate extremes pose severe threats to human health,economic stability and environmental sustainability,especially in densely populated areas.It is generally believed that global warming drives increase in frequency,intensity and duration of climate extremes,and socioeconomic exposure plays a dominant role in climate impacts.In order to promote climate risk govemance at regional level,the historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes are quantified in eastern China using downscaled climate simulations and population growth scenarios.The frequency of temperature extremes (tx35days) is projected to more than double by 2050 in nearly half of prefecture-level cities in eastern China,leading to an 81.8％ increment of total exposure under SSP2-4.5 scenario.The increasing trend is also detectable in the frequency of precipitation extremes (r20mm) in eastern China,and the exposure increment is projected to be 22.9％ by 2050,with a near equivalent contributions of both climate change and population growth.Spatially,temperature exposure mainly grows in southern Hebei,western Shandong and inland Guangdong provinces,while precipitation exposure raises principally in southeast coastal areas of China.Based on the historical baseline and projected amplification of population exposure,we identify some hotspot cities such as Guangzhou,Shanghai,Dongguan and Hangzhou that response to climate change dramatically and confront greater potential risk of climate extremes in the coming future.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at 1 km2 scale

    YIN Guo-AnNIU Fu-JunLIN Zhan-JuLUO Jing...
    814-827页
    查看更多>>摘要：The degradation of near-surface permafrost under ongoing climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is of growing concern due to its impacts on geomorphological and ecological processes,as well as human activities.There is an increased need for an in-depth understanding of the evolution of permafrost temperature (Ttop) and active-layer thickness (ALT) at a fine scale on the QTP under climate change.This study evaluated the permafrost thermal development over the QTP for the period 1980-2100 at a 1 kin2 scale using a physically analytical model accounting for both climatic and local environmental factors based on multi-source data,The model results were validated against thermal borehole measurements and baseline maps.The modeled current (2001-2018) permafrost area (Ttop ≤ 0 ℃) covers 1.42 × 106 km2 (ca.56.1％of the QTP land area),10.1％ of which thawed over the historical period 1981-2000.To assess how the ground thermal regime could develop in the future,we utilized the multi-model ensemble mean of downscaled outputs from eight climate models under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (i.e.,SSP126,245,and 585) in CMIP6 to force the permafrost model.Model results suggest that the current (2001-2018) permafrost extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future period (2021-2100),as indicated by consistent Ttop warming and ALT increasing due to climate changing.About 26.9％,59.9％,80.1％ of the current permafrost is likely to disappear by the end of the 21st century under SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585 scenarios,respectively.The simulation results may further provide new opportunities to assess the future impacts of climate warming on environments and engineering development over the QTP.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    An interval-parameter two-stage optimization model for CO2 collection,distribution,transportation,utilization,and storage planning

    ZHAI Ming-YangJIA Hai-FengMichela CATENALI Qi-An...
    828-847页
    查看更多>>摘要：Geological carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization and storage have been widely recognized as one of the important options to deliver greenhouse gas emissions reduction.Reasonable planning is critical to promote CO2 utilization and storage.However,CO2 emissions gas collection exhibits a stochastic probability distribution,and CO2 utilization and storage features fluctuation demands,which have gone beyond current determine planning techniques.To fulfill the current research gap,this study develops an interval-parameter two-stage programming-based CO2 collection,distribution,transportation,utilization,and storage optimization model,integrating interval parameter planning and two-stage planning into a general framework.Therefore,the model can address uncertainties expressed as random probabilistic distributions and discrete intervals,tackle dynamic facilities capacity expansion issues,develop optimal predefined CO2 distribution policy,and generate recourse schemes to address gas shortage or gas surplus issues.The model is examined by a typical hypnotical case study in China.The results revealed that the model could generate a set of first-stage reasonable CO2 distribution and facilities capacity expansion schemes to maximum system benefits and the highest feasibility.Besides,a set of two-stage CO2 outsourcing purchases and facilities capacity expansion in reserve storage regions solutions were also generated to address the gas oversupplies and shortage issues.The modeling approach enriches the current CO2 utilization and storage dis-tribution research content under multiple uncertainties.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Coordinated reduction of CO2 emissions and environmental impacts with integrated city-level LEAP and LCA method:A case study of Jinan,China

    CHEN ShaLIU Ying-YingLIN JinSHI Xiao-Dan...
    848-857页
    查看更多>>摘要：The evaluation of the efficiency and feasibility of energy transition and air pollution control at the city level is one of the key points in addressing environmental problems and achieving the goals of CO2 emission reduction and carbon neutrality in China.In this study,an inte-grated method is developed on the basis of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and life cycle assessment (LCA).The energy demands and environmental co-benefits in Jinan,one of the low-carbon city pilots in China,are quantitatively evaluated under three policy scenarios:low-carbon (LC) policy scenario,pollution control (PC) policy scenario,and deep-level cut of CO2 emissions (DCC) scenario from 2016 to 2050.From 2016 to 2030,the PC policies would be more powerful than the LC policies in terms of energy demand decrease.From 2030 to 2050,the LC policies would be more efficient than all the other policies.Promoting energy-saving buildings in the LC scenario would contribute to the continual decline in energy demands.In the DCC scenario,CO2,PM2.5,PM10,CO,NOx and SO2 emissions would decline by more than 71.4％relative to the records in 2016.Global warming potential,human toxicity potential,photochemical ozone creation potential,particulate matter formation potential,and acidification potential would also decrease by 81.8％-88.5％.On the basis of the integrated city-level LEAP and LCA method,this study quantifies the various environmental impacts of urban decarbonization policies and provides science-based references for urban low-carbon transformation.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Modelling low carbon transition and economic impacts under SSPs and RCPs based on GTIMES

    YANG LeiSHI Jing-ChengCHEN Wen-YingJames GLYNN...
    858-870页
    查看更多>>摘要：The simulation of global and regional energy system transition and its potential mitigation cost could intuitively reflect the need for earlier climate mitigation actions.To explore the possible transitions of global and regional energy system,this study applied a 14-region energy system model (GTIMES) with scenarios designed using Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs),and detailed depicts the quantification of SSPs trajectories into GTIMES model.Modeling results show that:1) Global energy-related CO2 emissions will reach 37-74 Gt by 2050 under reference scenarios,while they will decrease to 12-14 Gt under higher possibility pathways to reach 2 ℃ target,with ratios of non-fossil fuel round to 42％-46％.2) Electrification level has to increase noticeably in regional transition with a global average level of about 44％ to achieve significant emission reduction.3) Higher level of mitigation cost would happen with the constraint mitigation target,as well as social and economic trajectories chosen.Therefore,following trajectories of sustainable development is necessary.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Modelling the effect of local and regional emissions on PM2.5 concentrations in Wuhan,China during the COVID-19 lockdown

    BAI Yong-QingWANG YingKONG Shao-FeiZHAO Tian-Liang...
    871-880页
    查看更多>>摘要：PM2.5 concentrations in Wuhan,China decreased by 36.0％ between the period prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (1-23 January,2020) and the COVID-lockdown period (24 January to 29 February,2020).However,decreases in PM2.5 concentration due to regional PM2.5 transport driven by meteorological changes,and the relationship between the PM2.5 source and receptor,are poorly understood.Therefore,this study assessed how changes in meteorology,local emissions,and regional transport from external source emissions contributed to the decrease in Wuhan's PM2.5 concentration,using FLEXPART-WRF and WRF-Chem modelling experiments.The results showed that meteorological changes in central China explain up to 22.2％ of the total decrease in PM2.5 concentrations in Wuhan,while the remaining 77.8％ was due to air pollutant emissions reduction.Reduction in air pollutant emissions depended on both local and external sources,which contributed alomst equally to the reduction in PM2.5 concentrations (38.7％ and 39.1％ of the total reduction,respectively).The key emissions source areas affecting PM2.5 in Wuhan during the COVID-lockdown were identified by the FLEXPART-WRF modeling,revealing that regional-joint control measures in key areas accounted for 89.3％ of the decrease in PM2.5 concentrations in Wuhan.The results show that regional-joint control can be enhanced by identifying key areas of emissions reduction from the source-receptor relationship of regional PM2.5 transport driven by meteorology under the background of East Asian monsoon climate change.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据